Opinion Poll by JL Partners for Politico, 17–21 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 53.0% 50.9–55.0% 50.4–55.5% 49.9–56.0% 48.9–57.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 78 74–81 73–81 73–82 72–84
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 24 22–28 22–28 22–29 21–30
Scottish Labour 24 17 14–18 13–18 12–18 12–19
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 5–11 5–12 5–12
Scottish Greens 6 2 2–4 2–5 2–6 2–7

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100% Majority
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 100%  
72 2% 99.8%  
73 4% 98%  
74 7% 94%  
75 9% 86%  
76 11% 77%  
77 15% 66%  
78 18% 51% Median
79 14% 33%  
80 9% 19%  
81 6% 11%  
82 3% 5%  
83 1.5% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 28% 98%  
23 19% 70%  
24 13% 51% Median
25 13% 39%  
26 10% 26%  
27 6% 16%  
28 6% 11%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.8% 1.0%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.8%  
13 3% 96%  
14 5% 92%  
15 7% 88%  
16 15% 81%  
17 49% 66% Median
18 15% 17%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 6% 100% Last Result
6 4% 94%  
7 10% 90%  
8 32% 80% Median
9 32% 48%  
10 9% 17%  
11 4% 8%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.9%  
2 68% 99.5% Median
3 17% 32%  
4 8% 15%  
5 3% 7%  
6 2% 3% Last Result
7 0.7% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 80 100% 76–83 76–84 75–85 74–86
Scottish National Party 63 78 100% 74–81 73–81 73–82 72–84
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 49 0% 46–53 45–53 44–54 43–55
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 40 0% 38–44 37–45 36–45 35–46
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 30–36 29–37 29–38 27–39
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 28 0% 24–30 23–31 23–31 22–33
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 25 0% 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–29

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.3%  
76 7% 96%  
77 8% 90%  
78 10% 81%  
79 12% 71%  
80 14% 59% Median
81 15% 45%  
82 14% 30%  
83 9% 16%  
84 3% 7%  
85 3% 4%  
86 0.8% 1.2%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100% Majority
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 100%  
72 2% 99.8%  
73 4% 98%  
74 7% 94%  
75 9% 86%  
76 11% 77%  
77 15% 66%  
78 18% 51% Median
79 14% 33%  
80 9% 19%  
81 6% 11%  
82 3% 5%  
83 1.5% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 3% 96%  
46 9% 93%  
47 14% 84%  
48 15% 70%  
49 14% 55% Median
50 12% 41%  
51 10% 29%  
52 8% 19%  
53 7% 10%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 2% 98%  
37 3% 96%  
38 9% 93%  
39 19% 83%  
40 18% 64%  
41 13% 46% Median
42 10% 33%  
43 9% 23%  
44 6% 14%  
45 6% 8%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.4%  
29 3% 98%  
30 15% 95%  
31 18% 80%  
32 16% 62% Median
33 14% 46%  
34 12% 32%  
35 8% 20%  
36 5% 13% Last Result
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 1.5% 99.5%  
23 3% 98%  
24 6% 95%  
25 8% 89%  
26 11% 80%  
27 17% 69% Median
28 20% 52%  
29 15% 33%  
30 9% 17%  
31 6% 8%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 0.7% 99.6%  
20 2% 99.0%  
21 4% 97%  
22 9% 93%  
23 9% 84%  
24 13% 75%  
25 22% 62% Median
26 20% 40%  
27 10% 20%  
28 6% 10%  
29 4% 4% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations