Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for STV News, 2–9 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 48.0% 46.1–50.0% 45.5–50.6% 45.0–51.1% 44.1–52.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.8–20.4% 15.1–21.2%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–16.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 72 70–73 70–74 70–75 69–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 22 20–24 19–25 19–26 18–26
Scottish Labour 24 16 16–17 16–19 15–19 13–21
Scottish Greens 6 10 10 10–11 9–12 7–13
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 9 6–10 6–11 5–11 5–12

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100% Majority
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.6%  
70 15% 98%  
71 29% 83%  
72 26% 54% Median
73 19% 28%  
74 6% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.8%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 5% 98.8%  
20 6% 94%  
21 16% 88%  
22 29% 71% Median
23 22% 42%  
24 11% 20%  
25 4% 9%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.7%  
14 0.8% 99.0%  
15 1.4% 98%  
16 48% 97% Median
17 41% 49%  
18 3% 8%  
19 3% 5%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 0.8% 1.2%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
7 0.3% 99.6%  
8 0.6% 99.3%  
9 2% 98.7%  
10 89% 97% Median
11 4% 8%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100% Last Result
6 9% 96%  
7 15% 86%  
8 19% 72%  
9 39% 53% Median
10 7% 14%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 82 100% 80–84 80–84 79–85 78–86
Scottish National Party 63 72 100% 70–73 70–74 70–75 69–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 47 0% 45–49 45–49 44–50 43–51
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–43 35–43
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 31 0% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–35
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 25 0% 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–30

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 2% 99.3%  
80 11% 97%  
81 28% 85%  
82 27% 57% Median
83 20% 30%  
84 7% 10%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.8% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100% Majority
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.6%  
70 15% 98%  
71 29% 83%  
72 26% 54% Median
73 19% 28%  
74 6% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.9%  
45 7% 97%  
46 20% 90%  
47 27% 70% Median
48 28% 43%  
49 11% 15%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 11% 96%  
38 32% 86% Median
39 26% 54%  
40 13% 28%  
41 8% 15%  
42 4% 7%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.7%  
32 5% 99.0%  
33 12% 94%  
34 22% 82%  
35 30% 61% Last Result, Median
36 13% 30%  
37 8% 17%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.0% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 1.4% 99.7%  
27 3% 98%  
28 7% 96%  
29 14% 89%  
30 20% 75%  
31 22% 55% Median
32 23% 32%  
33 8% 10%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.7%  
22 5% 99.2%  
23 11% 94%  
24 23% 83%  
25 33% 60% Median
26 13% 27%  
27 7% 14%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2% Last Result
30 0.7% 1.0%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations