Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes, 9 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 41.4% 39.4–43.4% 38.8–44.0% 38.4–44.5% 37.4–45.4%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.2% 19.6–23.0% 19.2–23.5% 18.8–23.9% 18.1–24.7%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.1% 16.7–19.8% 16.2–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.1% 9.9–12.4% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 64 60–68 60–69 60–69 59–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–32
Scottish Labour 24 22 18–24 18–25 17–25 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.8%  
60 10% 98%  
61 12% 89%  
62 10% 77%  
63 15% 67% Last Result
64 11% 52% Median
65 12% 41% Majority
66 9% 29%  
67 9% 19%  
68 4% 10%  
69 5% 6%  
70 0.8% 1.4%  
71 0.6% 0.7%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.8%  
21 3% 99.2%  
22 5% 96%  
23 10% 91%  
24 16% 81%  
25 16% 65% Median
26 21% 49%  
27 13% 28%  
28 6% 14%  
29 4% 8%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.9% 2% Last Result
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 3% 100%  
18 8% 97%  
19 10% 89%  
20 8% 79%  
21 12% 71%  
22 17% 59% Median
23 20% 42%  
24 13% 22% Last Result
25 7% 9%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 23% 99.9%  
11 21% 77%  
12 33% 56% Median
13 15% 22%  
14 5% 7%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 27% 98% Last Result
6 32% 70% Median
7 12% 38%  
8 23% 27%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.3% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 75 100% 72–79 72–80 71–81 70–82
Scottish National Party 63 64 41% 60–68 60–69 60–69 59–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 54 0% 50–57 49–57 48–58 47–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 47 0% 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 40 0% 36–43 35–44 34–44 33–45
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–35 28–36 27–36 26–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
70 1.3% 99.6%  
71 3% 98%  
72 8% 95%  
73 11% 87%  
74 14% 76%  
75 14% 62%  
76 12% 48% Median
77 14% 36%  
78 7% 22%  
79 7% 15%  
80 5% 8%  
81 2% 3%  
82 1.0% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.8%  
60 10% 98%  
61 12% 89%  
62 10% 77%  
63 15% 67% Last Result
64 11% 52% Median
65 12% 41% Majority
66 9% 29%  
67 9% 19%  
68 4% 10%  
69 5% 6%  
70 0.8% 1.4%  
71 0.6% 0.7%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 1.0% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 5% 97%  
50 7% 92%  
51 7% 85%  
52 14% 78%  
53 12% 64% Median
54 14% 52%  
55 14% 38%  
56 11% 24%  
57 8% 13%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.8%  
43 4% 96%  
44 10% 92%  
45 8% 81%  
46 13% 74%  
47 15% 60% Median
48 15% 45%  
49 14% 30%  
50 7% 16%  
51 6% 9%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.9% 1.3%  
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.3%  
35 5% 97% Last Result
36 7% 93%  
37 7% 86%  
38 10% 79%  
39 13% 69%  
40 16% 55% Median
41 13% 40%  
42 11% 27%  
43 8% 16%  
44 6% 8%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.8%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 6% 97%  
29 9% 91%  
30 13% 82%  
31 13% 69% Median
32 17% 56%  
33 13% 39%  
34 15% 26%  
35 5% 11%  
36 3% 5% Last Result
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.9% 100%  
23 3% 99.0%  
24 5% 96%  
25 7% 90%  
26 10% 84%  
27 12% 74%  
28 16% 62% Median
29 17% 46% Last Result
30 13% 29%  
31 8% 17%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations