Opinion Poll by YouGov, 6–10 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 47.0% 45.1–49.0% 44.5–49.5% 44.1–50.0% 43.1–50.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.1–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.1–23.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 13.0% 11.8–14.4% 11.5–14.8% 11.2–15.2% 10.6–15.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.2%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.3–8.1%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 72 70–75 70–76 69–76 67–78
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 26 24–30 24–31 23–31 22–32
Scottish Labour 24 17 15–17 14–18 13–19 12–21
Scottish Greens 6 9 5–10 4–10 3–10 3–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–7 5–8 4–8 3–9
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 100% Majority
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 98.8%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 9% 97%  
71 22% 88%  
72 23% 66% Median
73 16% 43%  
74 14% 27%  
75 8% 13%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 12% 97%  
25 14% 85%  
26 30% 70% Median
27 15% 40%  
28 6% 25%  
29 7% 19%  
30 4% 12%  
31 7% 8% Last Result
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 2% 97%  
15 7% 94%  
16 18% 88%  
17 62% 70% Median
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.8%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 5% 97%  
5 13% 92%  
6 8% 79% Last Result
7 9% 70%  
8 6% 61%  
9 7% 55% Median
10 48% 48%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.8%  
4 4% 99.4%  
5 71% 96% Last Result, Median
6 12% 25%  
7 6% 13%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 81 100% 77–83 76–83 75–84 75–85
Scottish National Party 63 72 100% 70–75 70–76 69–76 67–78
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 48 0% 46–52 46–53 45–54 44–54
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 43 0% 41–47 40–48 40–48 38–49
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–36 29–36 29–37 28–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 31 0% 26–33 26–33 25–33 24–34
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 20–24 19–24 18–25 17–27

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.5%  
76 5% 97%  
77 5% 91%  
78 7% 86%  
79 8% 79%  
80 11% 71%  
81 26% 59% Median
82 16% 34%  
83 13% 17%  
84 4% 5%  
85 0.6% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 100% Majority
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 98.8%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 9% 97%  
71 22% 88%  
72 23% 66% Median
73 16% 43%  
74 14% 27%  
75 8% 13%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 4% 99.1%  
46 13% 95%  
47 16% 83%  
48 26% 66% Median
49 11% 41%  
50 8% 29%  
51 7% 21%  
52 5% 14%  
53 5% 9%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 4% 98%  
41 14% 93%  
42 18% 79%  
43 30% 61% Median
44 5% 30%  
45 7% 25%  
46 8% 18%  
47 5% 10%  
48 4% 5%  
49 0.9% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 11% 98%  
30 12% 86%  
31 23% 74% Median
32 18% 51%  
33 9% 33%  
34 8% 24%  
35 5% 16%  
36 7% 11% Last Result
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.7% 99.7%  
25 3% 99.0%  
26 6% 96%  
27 7% 89%  
28 10% 83%  
29 11% 72%  
30 10% 61%  
31 12% 52% Median
32 29% 40%  
33 10% 11%  
34 1.1% 1.4%  
35 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 2% 97%  
20 6% 95%  
21 13% 89%  
22 49% 76% Median
23 15% 27%  
24 8% 12%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.1% 2%  
27 0.7% 1.1%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations