Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Scot Goes Pop, 5–11 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 45.6% 43.6–47.6% 43.0–48.2% 42.5–48.7% 41.6–49.6%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.8–21.9% 17.5–22.4% 16.8–23.2%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.8% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 70 67–71 66–72 65–73 64–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 24 21–26 21–27 21–28 19–31
Scottish Labour 24 22 18–24 17–25 17–26 17–27
Scottish Greens 6 10 5–10 5–10 4–10 3–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 4–6 3–7 3–8

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
64 0.8% 99.7%  
65 2% 98.9% Majority
66 5% 96%  
67 11% 92%  
68 5% 81%  
69 21% 76%  
70 31% 55% Median
71 15% 24%  
72 6% 9%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.3%  
21 14% 98%  
22 4% 84%  
23 15% 80%  
24 18% 65% Median
25 23% 47%  
26 18% 24%  
27 3% 6%  
28 1.2% 3%  
29 0.9% 2%  
30 0.6% 1.2%  
31 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 7% 100%  
18 8% 93%  
19 11% 86%  
20 5% 74%  
21 6% 69%  
22 14% 63% Median
23 25% 49%  
24 16% 24% Last Result
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.5% 1.0%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 4% 99.5%  
5 10% 96%  
6 6% 86% Last Result
7 6% 80%  
8 7% 74%  
9 9% 67%  
10 56% 58% Median
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 3% 99.5%  
4 7% 97%  
5 62% 90% Last Result, Median
6 24% 28%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.1% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 78 100% 75–81 74–81 73–82 70–83
Scottish National Party 63 70 98.9% 67–71 66–72 65–73 64–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 51 0% 48–54 48–55 47–56 46–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 46 0% 43–49 43–50 42–51 41–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 32–39 32–39 32–40 30–41
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 29 0% 26–32 26–33 26–34 24–36
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 28 0% 23–29 22–30 22–31 22–33

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100% Last Result
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 1.1% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 7% 92%  
76 13% 85%  
77 15% 72%  
78 8% 57%  
79 16% 49%  
80 22% 33% Median
81 7% 11%  
82 2% 4%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
64 0.8% 99.7%  
65 2% 98.9% Majority
66 5% 96%  
67 11% 92%  
68 5% 81%  
69 21% 76%  
70 31% 55% Median
71 15% 24%  
72 6% 9%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 2% 99.8%  
47 2% 98%  
48 7% 96%  
49 22% 89%  
50 16% 67%  
51 8% 51% Median
52 15% 43%  
53 13% 28%  
54 7% 15%  
55 4% 8%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.7%  
42 2% 98%  
43 8% 96%  
44 27% 88%  
45 10% 60%  
46 10% 50% Median
47 14% 40%  
48 13% 25%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 1.3% 99.5%  
32 10% 98%  
33 13% 88%  
34 16% 75%  
35 12% 58% Last Result
36 9% 47%  
37 8% 37% Median
38 13% 29%  
39 12% 16%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.8% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 1.1% 99.4%  
26 13% 98%  
27 7% 86%  
28 12% 79%  
29 18% 67% Median
30 18% 49%  
31 18% 31%  
32 7% 13%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.4% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.5%  
36 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 5% 99.6%  
23 7% 95%  
24 10% 88%  
25 8% 78%  
26 7% 70%  
27 12% 63% Median
28 19% 51%  
29 22% 32% Last Result
30 6% 10%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.8% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations