Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for STV News, 20–26 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 47.0% 45.0–49.0% 44.4–49.6% 43.9–50.1% 43.0–51.1%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.8–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 71 67–73 65–74 65–74 65–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 25–31 25–32 24–32 23–33
Scottish Labour 24 18 17–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Scottish Greens 6 5 4–10 3–10 3–10 3–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 4–7 3–8 2–8

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 5% 99.7% Majority
66 2% 94%  
67 6% 92%  
68 5% 85%  
69 7% 80%  
70 16% 73%  
71 27% 57% Median
72 15% 31%  
73 9% 16%  
74 5% 7%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.8% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 3% 99.3%  
25 9% 96%  
26 32% 87%  
27 10% 56% Median
28 6% 46%  
29 9% 39%  
30 10% 30%  
31 10% 20% Last Result
32 8% 9%  
33 0.7% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 41% 98.9%  
18 12% 58% Median
19 9% 47%  
20 6% 38%  
21 8% 31%  
22 17% 23%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 6% 99.6%  
4 14% 93%  
5 32% 79% Median
6 6% 47% Last Result
7 6% 41%  
8 3% 36%  
9 5% 32%  
10 27% 27%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.9% 100%  
3 2% 99.1%  
4 7% 97%  
5 68% 91% Last Result, Median
6 16% 22%  
7 4% 6%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 77 100% 73–81 71–82 70–82 69–83
Scottish National Party 63 71 99.7% 67–73 65–74 65–74 65–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 52 0% 48–56 47–58 47–59 46–60
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 47 0% 43–50 43–52 42–54 41–55
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 30–37 29–37 29–37 28–39
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 32 0% 27–33 26–34 26–35 25–37
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 24 0% 22–28 22–28 21–29 20–30

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
70 2% 99.0%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 3% 92%  
74 6% 89%  
75 14% 84%  
76 18% 70% Median
77 13% 51%  
78 9% 38%  
79 6% 30%  
80 7% 24%  
81 12% 17%  
82 3% 5%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 5% 99.7% Majority
66 2% 94%  
67 6% 92%  
68 5% 85%  
69 7% 80%  
70 16% 73%  
71 27% 57% Median
72 15% 31%  
73 9% 16%  
74 5% 7%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.8% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 2% 99.7%  
47 3% 98%  
48 12% 95%  
49 7% 83%  
50 6% 76% Median
51 9% 70%  
52 13% 62%  
53 18% 49%  
54 14% 30%  
55 6% 16%  
56 3% 11%  
57 2% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.0% 99.9%  
42 3% 98.9%  
43 15% 95%  
44 6% 81%  
45 5% 75% Median
46 10% 69%  
47 13% 60%  
48 21% 46%  
49 11% 25%  
50 4% 14%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 1.2% 99.7%  
29 4% 98.5%  
30 7% 94%  
31 24% 87%  
32 13% 63% Median
33 8% 49%  
34 10% 42%  
35 11% 32%  
36 9% 22% Last Result
37 10% 13%  
38 1.5% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 4% 98%  
27 7% 94%  
28 8% 88% Median
29 8% 80%  
30 7% 72%  
31 14% 65%  
32 30% 51%  
33 14% 21%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3% Last Result
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 4% 98.9%  
22 30% 95%  
23 16% 66% Median
24 10% 50%  
25 7% 40%  
26 9% 33%  
27 13% 25%  
28 7% 11%  
29 3% 4% Last Result
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations