Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 11–15 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 42.0% 40.0–44.0% 39.4–44.5% 38.9–45.0% 38.0–46.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.1–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 17.0–23.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 12.0% 10.8–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 66 62–70 61–70 61–71 60–72
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 24 21–27 20–28 20–29 19–30
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–23 17–23 17–24 16–25
Scottish Greens 6 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–17
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 4% 98%  
62 4% 94%  
63 10% 90% Last Result
64 8% 80%  
65 11% 71% Majority
66 10% 60% Median
67 14% 50%  
68 13% 36%  
69 11% 23%  
70 8% 12%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.6% 0.6%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.9%  
20 4% 98%  
21 9% 94%  
22 13% 85%  
23 17% 72%  
24 18% 56% Median
25 14% 37%  
26 11% 23%  
27 6% 12%  
28 2% 6%  
29 1.5% 3%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.8% 100%  
17 10% 99.2%  
18 23% 90%  
19 20% 66% Median
20 10% 47%  
21 12% 36%  
22 10% 25%  
23 10% 15%  
24 3% 5% Last Result
25 1.5% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 5% 100%  
11 9% 95%  
12 31% 86%  
13 20% 55% Median
14 26% 35%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.7% 1.5%  
17 0.4% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 31% 98% Last Result
6 31% 66% Median
7 18% 36%  
8 14% 18%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 1.0%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 79 100% 75–82 74–83 73–83 72–84
Scottish National Party 63 66 71% 62–70 61–70 61–71 60–72
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 50 0% 47–54 46–55 46–56 45–57
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 44 0% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 39 0% 36–43 35–44 34–44 33–45
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 30 0% 27–34 26–34 26–35 25–37
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 26 0% 23–29 23–30 22–31 22–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.2%  
74 5% 97%  
75 5% 93%  
76 8% 88%  
77 11% 80%  
78 10% 69%  
79 12% 59% Median
80 12% 47%  
81 12% 35%  
82 14% 22%  
83 7% 9%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 4% 98%  
62 4% 94%  
63 10% 90% Last Result
64 8% 80%  
65 11% 71% Majority
66 10% 60% Median
67 14% 50%  
68 13% 36%  
69 11% 23%  
70 8% 12%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.6% 0.6%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.6%  
46 7% 98%  
47 14% 91%  
48 12% 78%  
49 12% 65% Median
50 12% 53%  
51 10% 41%  
52 11% 31%  
53 8% 20%  
54 5% 12%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 5% 96%  
41 12% 92%  
42 16% 79%  
43 12% 63% Median
44 15% 51%  
45 11% 36%  
46 8% 25%  
47 8% 17%  
48 4% 9%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.2%  
35 6% 96% Last Result
36 11% 90%  
37 12% 79%  
38 13% 68% Median
39 14% 54%  
40 12% 40%  
41 11% 28%  
42 7% 18%  
43 5% 10%  
44 4% 5%  
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.8%  
26 5% 98.9%  
27 7% 94%  
28 15% 87%  
29 18% 73%  
30 15% 55% Median
31 11% 40%  
32 11% 29%  
33 6% 18%  
34 7% 11%  
35 2% 5%  
36 2% 2% Last Result
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 4% 99.7%  
23 10% 95%  
24 15% 85%  
25 15% 70% Median
26 15% 55%  
27 13% 40%  
28 9% 27%  
29 9% 19% Last Result
30 5% 10%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations