Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 8–13 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 44.0% 42.0–46.0% 41.5–46.6% 41.0–47.1% 40.0–48.0%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 68 65–71 64–71 63–72 62–73
Scottish Labour 24 22 19–25 19–25 18–26 17–27
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 19 17–20 16–21 16–22 16–23
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–11 5–11 5–11

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.8% 100%  
63 4% 99.2% Last Result
64 2% 95%  
65 4% 93% Majority
66 13% 89%  
67 10% 76%  
68 18% 65% Median
69 25% 47%  
70 9% 22%  
71 10% 13%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 7% 96%  
20 10% 90%  
21 16% 80%  
22 16% 64% Median
23 23% 47%  
24 13% 24% Last Result
25 8% 11%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.7% 1.2%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 7% 99.5%  
17 8% 93%  
18 15% 84%  
19 45% 69% Median
20 17% 24%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.9% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 18% 99.9%  
11 24% 82%  
12 19% 57% Median
13 22% 38%  
14 15% 16%  
15 1.3% 1.5%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8% Last Result
6 14% 96%  
7 15% 82%  
8 30% 67% Median
9 24% 37%  
10 6% 13%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 80 100% 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–85
Scottish National Party 63 68 93% 65–71 64–71 63–72 62–73
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 49 0% 46–52 46–53 45–54 44–55
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–47 36–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 41 0% 38–44 37–45 37–45 36–47
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 30 0% 27–33 27–34 26–34 24–36
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 23–30 22–31

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 4% 97%  
77 6% 93%  
78 8% 87%  
79 17% 80%  
80 27% 62% Median
81 9% 36%  
82 15% 27%  
83 8% 12%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.9% 1.1%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.8% 100%  
63 4% 99.2% Last Result
64 2% 95%  
65 4% 93% Majority
66 13% 89%  
67 10% 76%  
68 18% 65% Median
69 25% 47%  
70 9% 22%  
71 10% 13%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.8%  
45 3% 98.9%  
46 8% 96%  
47 15% 88%  
48 9% 73%  
49 27% 64% Median
50 17% 38%  
51 8% 20%  
52 6% 13%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 7% 96%  
40 10% 90%  
41 21% 79%  
42 19% 58% Median
43 13% 39%  
44 14% 27%  
45 5% 13%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 9% 95%  
39 12% 86%  
40 18% 74%  
41 17% 56% Median
42 12% 39%  
43 14% 27%  
44 6% 13%  
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 1.0% 99.4%  
26 3% 98%  
27 6% 95%  
28 10% 89%  
29 12% 79% Last Result
30 22% 67% Median
31 22% 45%  
32 10% 23%  
33 7% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.5% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.8%  
23 2% 98.9%  
24 5% 97%  
25 12% 92%  
26 22% 80%  
27 25% 58% Median
28 18% 33%  
29 7% 15%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations