Opinion Poll by Survation for Scot Goes Pop, 11–13 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 40.0% 38.1–42.0% 37.5–42.6% 37.0–43.0% 36.1–44.0%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 17.0% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 63 62–68 61–68 60–69 59–69
Scottish Labour 24 23 21–26 21–26 20–27 19–29
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–25
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 10 8–12 7–12 7–13 6–14

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 6% 97%  
62 26% 90%  
63 20% 64% Last Result, Median
64 11% 44%  
65 7% 33% Majority
66 9% 26%  
67 6% 18%  
68 8% 11%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.7%  
20 3% 98%  
21 7% 96%  
22 20% 89%  
23 24% 69% Median
24 17% 45% Last Result
25 17% 27%  
26 6% 10%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 2%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.2%  
18 9% 95%  
19 28% 86%  
20 24% 58% Median
21 16% 34%  
22 10% 18%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 23% 100%  
11 13% 77%  
12 17% 64% Median
13 40% 47%  
14 5% 7%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 1.5% 99.9%  
7 4% 98%  
8 23% 95%  
9 13% 71%  
10 18% 58% Median
11 29% 40%  
12 8% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 76 100% 73–79 72–80 72–80 70–82
Scottish National Party 63 63 33% 62–68 61–68 60–69 59–69
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 53 0% 50–56 49–57 49–57 47–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 45 0% 42–48 41–49 41–49 39–51
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 43 0% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–38 27–40
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 30 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 25–35

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 1.3% 99.4%  
72 6% 98%  
73 10% 92%  
74 12% 83%  
75 19% 71% Median
76 16% 52%  
77 11% 36%  
78 7% 25%  
79 12% 18%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.7% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 6% 97%  
62 26% 90%  
63 20% 64% Last Result, Median
64 11% 44%  
65 7% 33% Majority
66 9% 26%  
67 6% 18%  
68 8% 11%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.2%  
49 4% 98%  
50 12% 94%  
51 7% 82%  
52 11% 75%  
53 16% 64% Median
54 19% 48%  
55 12% 29%  
56 10% 17%  
57 6% 8%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.2%  
41 4% 98%  
42 8% 94%  
43 11% 86%  
44 13% 75%  
45 14% 62% Median
46 19% 47%  
47 13% 28%  
48 10% 15%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 8% 97%  
41 12% 89%  
42 12% 77%  
43 18% 65% Median
44 10% 47%  
45 18% 37%  
46 11% 19%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 0.8% 99.4%  
29 1.5% 98.5% Last Result
30 6% 97%  
31 13% 91%  
32 13% 78%  
33 26% 66% Median
34 15% 39%  
35 12% 24%  
36 5% 12%  
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.3%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 7% 95%  
28 15% 87%  
29 14% 72%  
30 23% 58% Median
31 15% 35%  
32 11% 19%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations