Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 4–9 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 43.0% 41.0–45.0% 40.5–45.6% 40.0–46.1% 39.0–47.1%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 66 63–69 63–70 62–71 61–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 23–28 22–30 21–30 21–32
Scottish Labour 24 22 18–25 18–25 17–25 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–12 10–12 10–13 9–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 2–8

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 1.3% 99.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 10% 97% Last Result
64 12% 87%  
65 22% 75% Majority
66 20% 54% Median
67 14% 34%  
68 4% 20%  
69 7% 16%  
70 6% 8%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.7%  
22 3% 97%  
23 12% 94%  
24 13% 82%  
25 24% 69% Median
26 16% 45%  
27 16% 30%  
28 5% 14%  
29 3% 9%  
30 3% 5%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 4% 100%  
18 6% 96%  
19 11% 90%  
20 8% 79%  
21 13% 71%  
22 16% 58% Median
23 18% 42%  
24 12% 24% Last Result
25 10% 12%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.3% 99.8%  
9 1.4% 99.5%  
10 55% 98% Median
11 25% 44%  
12 15% 19%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.8% 1.0%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 2% 99.4%  
4 7% 98%  
5 61% 91% Last Result, Median
6 25% 29%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.1% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 76 100% 74–80 73–81 73–81 71–82
Scottish National Party 63 66 75% 63–69 63–70 62–71 61–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 53 0% 49–55 48–56 48–56 47–58
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 47 0% 44–50 43–51 43–51 42–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 38 0% 34–40 33–41 33–42 32–43
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 31 0% 28–33 27–35 26–36 25–37
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 27 0% 24–30 23–30 22–31 22–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100% Last Result
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.4%  
73 4% 98.7%  
74 8% 94%  
75 21% 87%  
76 18% 66% Median
77 21% 47%  
78 8% 26%  
79 6% 18%  
80 7% 12%  
81 4% 6%  
82 1.0% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 1.3% 99.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 10% 97% Last Result
64 12% 87%  
65 22% 75% Majority
66 20% 54% Median
67 14% 34%  
68 4% 20%  
69 7% 16%  
70 6% 8%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.0% 99.6%  
48 4% 98.6%  
49 7% 94%  
50 6% 88%  
51 8% 82%  
52 21% 74% Median
53 18% 53%  
54 21% 34%  
55 8% 13%  
56 4% 6%  
57 0.7% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 11% 95%  
45 7% 84%  
46 14% 78%  
47 15% 64% Median
48 16% 49%  
49 19% 33%  
50 8% 14%  
51 5% 6%  
52 0.6% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.8%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 10% 90% Last Result
36 11% 80%  
37 12% 69% Median
38 17% 57%  
39 20% 41%  
40 13% 20%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 1.2%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.5%  
27 2% 97%  
28 9% 94%  
29 16% 85%  
30 16% 69% Median
31 19% 53%  
32 13% 34%  
33 10% 20%  
34 4% 10%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.7%  
23 4% 96%  
24 6% 92%  
25 11% 86%  
26 15% 75%  
27 14% 60% Median
28 19% 46%  
29 15% 27% Last Result
30 10% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations