Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for STV News, 15–21 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 47.0% | 45.1–49.0% | 44.5–49.6% | 44.0–50.1% | 43.1–51.1% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.9–25.5% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–16.9% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 71 | 67–72 | 65–73 | 65–74 | 65–75 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 27 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–33 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 17 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–22 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 10 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 2–8 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 7% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 66 | 2% | 93% | |
| 67 | 9% | 91% | |
| 68 | 6% | 82% | |
| 69 | 6% | 76% | |
| 70 | 17% | 70% | |
| 71 | 33% | 53% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 20% | |
| 73 | 5% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 5% | 97% | |
| 26 | 35% | 92% | |
| 27 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 28 | 5% | 41% | |
| 29 | 9% | 36% | |
| 30 | 9% | 27% | |
| 31 | 9% | 18% | Last Result |
| 32 | 9% | 9% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 3% | 97% | |
| 16 | 15% | 94% | |
| 17 | 73% | 79% | Median |
| 18 | 3% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98% | |
| 6 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 7 | 4% | 88% | |
| 8 | 3% | 84% | |
| 9 | 4% | 81% | |
| 10 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 4% | 98% | |
| 5 | 70% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 17% | 24% | |
| 7 | 4% | 7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 80 | 100% | 75–82 | 75–82 | 75–83 | 73–84 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 71 | 99.9% | 67–72 | 65–73 | 65–74 | 65–75 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 49 | 0% | 47–54 | 47–54 | 46–54 | 45–56 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 43 | 0% | 42–48 | 42–49 | 41–49 | 40–51 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 32 | 0% | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–37 | 29–39 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 32 | 0% | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 75 | 10% | 98% | |
| 76 | 6% | 88% | |
| 77 | 11% | 82% | |
| 78 | 7% | 71% | |
| 79 | 6% | 63% | |
| 80 | 14% | 57% | |
| 81 | 31% | 43% | Median |
| 82 | 8% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 7% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 66 | 2% | 93% | |
| 67 | 9% | 91% | |
| 68 | 6% | 82% | |
| 69 | 6% | 76% | |
| 70 | 17% | 70% | |
| 71 | 33% | 53% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 20% | |
| 73 | 5% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 8% | 96% | |
| 48 | 31% | 88% | |
| 49 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 50 | 6% | 43% | |
| 51 | 7% | 37% | |
| 52 | 11% | 29% | |
| 53 | 6% | 18% | |
| 54 | 10% | 12% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 9% | 96% | |
| 43 | 39% | 87% | |
| 44 | 9% | 48% | Median |
| 45 | 5% | 39% | |
| 46 | 9% | 35% | |
| 47 | 9% | 26% | |
| 48 | 8% | 17% | |
| 49 | 8% | 9% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 5% | 97% | |
| 31 | 26% | 92% | |
| 32 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 8% | 46% | |
| 34 | 7% | 38% | |
| 35 | 10% | 30% | |
| 36 | 8% | 20% | Last Result |
| 37 | 10% | 12% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 4% | 97% | |
| 28 | 5% | 93% | |
| 29 | 5% | 88% | |
| 30 | 6% | 83% | |
| 31 | 11% | 76% | |
| 32 | 46% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 19% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 20 | 4% | 96% | |
| 21 | 12% | 92% | |
| 22 | 56% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 18% | 24% | |
| 24 | 4% | 7% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MORI
- Commissioner(s): STV News
- Fieldwork period: 15–21 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1031
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%