Opinion Poll by Survation for Daily Record, 24–25 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 38.0% 36.0–40.0% 35.5–40.5% 35.0–41.0% 34.1–42.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 60 58–64 58–66 57–67 53–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 23–28 22–28 21–29 20–31
Scottish Labour 24 25 23–27 22–28 21–29 19–30
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–10

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 0.5% 99.1%  
56 1.1% 98.6%  
57 2% 98%  
58 6% 95%  
59 15% 89%  
60 28% 74% Median
61 15% 46%  
62 9% 31%  
63 11% 22% Last Result
64 4% 11%  
65 2% 7% Majority
66 2% 5%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.8%  
21 3% 99.0%  
22 5% 96%  
23 9% 91%  
24 19% 82%  
25 20% 63% Median
26 20% 43%  
27 9% 23%  
28 9% 13%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.8%  
20 0.9% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 4% 97%  
23 16% 92%  
24 24% 77% Last Result
25 28% 53% Median
26 15% 25%  
27 5% 10%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 1.0%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 21% 99.9%  
11 21% 79%  
12 31% 58% Median
13 18% 26%  
14 6% 8%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 22% 98% Last Result
6 27% 75% Median
7 11% 48%  
8 29% 36%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 72 99.7% 70–76 69–77 68–79 65–80
Scottish National Party 63 60 7% 58–64 58–66 57–67 53–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 57 0.3% 53–59 52–60 50–61 49–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 50 0% 47–53 46–54 45–55 44–57
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 40–46 39–46 39–47 37–49
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–34 28–35 27–36 26–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 31 0% 29–34 28–35 27–35 26–37

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.7% Majority
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 98.8%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96% Last Result
70 11% 92%  
71 16% 81%  
72 18% 65% Median
73 18% 48%  
74 11% 29%  
75 8% 19%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 1.5% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 0.5% 99.1%  
56 1.1% 98.6%  
57 2% 98%  
58 6% 95%  
59 15% 89%  
60 28% 74% Median
61 15% 46%  
62 9% 31%  
63 11% 22% Last Result
64 4% 11%  
65 2% 7% Majority
66 2% 5%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 1.5% 97%  
52 3% 96%  
53 4% 93%  
54 8% 89%  
55 11% 81%  
56 18% 71% Median
57 18% 52%  
58 16% 35%  
59 11% 19%  
60 4% 8% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.3% Majority
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.5% 99.5%  
45 3% 98%  
46 4% 95%  
47 8% 92%  
48 12% 84%  
49 16% 71%  
50 17% 56% Median
51 17% 39%  
52 9% 22%  
53 8% 14%  
54 3% 6%  
55 1.4% 3% Last Result
56 0.6% 1.3%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 1.4% 99.0%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 94%  
41 11% 89%  
42 18% 78%  
43 17% 60% Median
44 19% 43%  
45 14% 24%  
46 7% 11%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.2% 99.6%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 7% 92%  
30 10% 85%  
31 13% 75% Median
32 18% 62%  
33 21% 43%  
34 15% 23%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.6% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.5%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 4% 96%  
29 11% 92% Last Result
30 18% 81%  
31 17% 63% Median
32 17% 46%  
33 16% 29%  
34 8% 13%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.6% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations