Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 3–5 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 42.0% 40.0–44.0% 39.4–44.5% 38.9–45.0% 38.0–46.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.0% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 65 62–68 61–69 61–70 60–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 30 25–32 25–32 24–33 24–34
Scottish Labour 24 24 22–27 22–28 21–29 19–30
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 5–11
Scottish Greens 6 4 3–6 2–8 2–9 2–10

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.5%  
61 6% 98%  
62 15% 92%  
63 14% 77% Last Result
64 12% 63%  
65 23% 51% Median, Majority
66 10% 28%  
67 7% 18%  
68 3% 11%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.8% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 8% 97%  
26 10% 89%  
27 10% 79%  
28 8% 69%  
29 10% 61%  
30 17% 51% Median
31 20% 34% Last Result
32 11% 14%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.3% 99.7%  
20 0.4% 99.4%  
21 3% 99.0%  
22 12% 96%  
23 16% 85%  
24 19% 69% Last Result, Median
25 13% 49%  
26 15% 37%  
27 15% 22%  
28 4% 7%  
29 1.4% 3%  
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 25% 99.9% Last Result
6 24% 75%  
7 14% 51% Median
8 32% 37%  
9 3% 5%  
10 1.1% 2%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 40% 92%  
4 19% 53% Median
5 13% 34%  
6 11% 20% Last Result
7 3% 9%  
8 2% 7%  
9 3% 5%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 68 95% 65–73 65–74 64–75 63–76
Scottish National Party 63 65 51% 62–68 61–69 61–70 60–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 61 5% 56–64 55–64 54–65 53–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 54 0% 50–57 48–58 48–58 46–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 35 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 31–42
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 36 0% 32–39 31–39 30–40 29–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 31 0% 29–35 28–35 27–36 26–37

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.9% 99.6%  
64 4% 98.7%  
65 10% 95% Majority
66 8% 85%  
67 12% 77%  
68 15% 65%  
69 16% 50% Last Result, Median
70 11% 34%  
71 6% 23%  
72 6% 18%  
73 5% 12%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 1.0%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.5%  
61 6% 98%  
62 15% 92%  
63 14% 77% Last Result
64 12% 63%  
65 23% 51% Median, Majority
66 10% 28%  
67 7% 18%  
68 3% 11%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.8% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.0%  
55 4% 97%  
56 5% 93%  
57 6% 88%  
58 6% 82%  
59 11% 77%  
60 16% 66% Last Result
61 15% 50% Median
62 12% 35%  
63 8% 23%  
64 10% 15%  
65 4% 5% Majority
66 0.9% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 1.4% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 4% 95%  
50 6% 90%  
51 7% 84%  
52 11% 78%  
53 10% 66%  
54 14% 56% Median
55 13% 42% Last Result
56 12% 29%  
57 12% 17%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 6% 99.1%  
33 16% 93%  
34 13% 77%  
35 17% 65% Last Result, Median
36 15% 47%  
37 12% 33%  
38 9% 21%  
39 4% 11%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 7% 92%  
33 9% 86%  
34 7% 77%  
35 11% 70%  
36 13% 59% Last Result
37 23% 46% Median
38 12% 23%  
39 6% 11%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.6%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 5% 97%  
29 13% 92% Last Result
30 20% 79%  
31 16% 59% Median
32 12% 43%  
33 10% 31%  
34 9% 21%  
35 9% 12%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.9% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations