Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 4–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 45.0% 43.1–46.9% 42.5–47.5% 42.1–48.0% 41.2–48.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 71 67–73 65–74 65–75 65–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 25–32 25–32 24–32 24–34
Scottish Labour 24 22 17–24 17–24 17–25 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 4 3–8 3–10 3–10 2–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 3–5 2–5 2–6 2–7
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Last Result
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 5% 99.7% Majority
66 3% 95%  
67 6% 91%  
68 6% 86%  
69 6% 80%  
70 9% 74%  
71 25% 65% Median
72 18% 40%  
73 13% 22%  
74 6% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 1.0% 1.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 7% 97%  
26 23% 90%  
27 18% 66% Median
28 7% 48%  
29 8% 42%  
30 9% 33%  
31 13% 24% Last Result
32 9% 11%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.7%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 14% 99.9%  
18 8% 85%  
19 7% 77%  
20 7% 70%  
21 11% 63%  
22 25% 52% Median
23 15% 27%  
24 9% 12% Last Result
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.8%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 24% 98%  
4 26% 74% Median
5 30% 48%  
6 4% 17% Last Result
7 3% 13%  
8 2% 10%  
9 2% 8%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 8% 94%  
4 16% 86%  
5 65% 70% Last Result, Median
6 4% 5%  
7 0.6% 1.0%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 76 100% 71–79 70–81 69–81 68–83
Scottish National Party 63 71 99.7% 67–73 65–74 65–75 65–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 53 0% 50–58 48–59 48–60 46–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 46–53 44–54 43–55 42–56
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 30–36 29–37 28–37 27–39
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 31 0% 27–33 25–33 25–34 24–36
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 26 0% 22–29 21–29 21–30 19–31

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 1.4% 99.9%  
69 2% 98% Last Result
70 4% 97%  
71 4% 93%  
72 3% 88%  
73 6% 85%  
74 10% 79%  
75 15% 68% Median
76 23% 53%  
77 11% 30%  
78 7% 19%  
79 4% 12%  
80 2% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.6% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Last Result
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 5% 99.7% Majority
66 3% 95%  
67 6% 91%  
68 6% 86%  
69 6% 80%  
70 9% 74%  
71 25% 65% Median
72 18% 40%  
73 13% 22%  
74 6% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 1.0% 1.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 2% 95%  
50 4% 92%  
51 7% 88%  
52 11% 81%  
53 23% 70%  
54 15% 47% Median
55 10% 32%  
56 6% 21%  
57 3% 15%  
58 4% 12%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.4%  
44 2% 96%  
45 3% 94%  
46 6% 92%  
47 8% 86%  
48 24% 78%  
49 18% 55% Median
50 13% 37%  
51 7% 24%  
52 4% 17%  
53 5% 13%  
54 4% 9%  
55 3% 4% Last Result
56 2% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 6% 97%  
30 10% 91%  
31 22% 81%  
32 16% 60% Median
33 7% 44%  
34 9% 37%  
35 9% 29%  
36 10% 20% Last Result
37 8% 10%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.8%  
25 3% 98%  
26 5% 95%  
27 7% 90%  
28 7% 83%  
29 9% 76%  
30 12% 67%  
31 18% 55% Median
32 25% 36%  
33 8% 12%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.3% 2% Last Result
36 0.4% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.3%  
21 3% 98%  
22 14% 95%  
23 8% 81%  
24 8% 73%  
25 10% 65%  
26 13% 55%  
27 19% 42% Median
28 13% 23%  
29 8% 10% Last Result
30 2% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations