Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 5–10 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 40.0% 38.1–42.1% 37.5–42.6% 37.1–43.1% 36.1–44.1%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.0% 16.6–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 59–65 58–65 56–67 55–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 30 27–33 26–33 25–34 24–35
Scottish Labour 24 22 18–24 17–25 17–25 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–12 10–13 9–13 7–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 3–8

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.6%  
56 1.0% 98%  
57 1.3% 97%  
58 1.3% 96%  
59 14% 95%  
60 16% 81%  
61 17% 65% Median
62 12% 48%  
63 12% 35% Last Result
64 11% 24%  
65 8% 12% Majority
66 1.3% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 3% 97%  
27 7% 94%  
28 11% 86%  
29 12% 76%  
30 26% 63% Median
31 11% 37% Last Result
32 8% 26%  
33 14% 18%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 10% 100%  
18 8% 90%  
19 9% 83%  
20 5% 73%  
21 15% 68%  
22 15% 53% Median
23 11% 38%  
24 19% 27% Last Result
25 7% 9%  
26 1.2% 1.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 0.4% 99.8%  
8 0.3% 99.4%  
9 2% 99.2%  
10 50% 97% Median
11 30% 48%  
12 12% 18%  
13 4% 6%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.7%  
4 6% 99.1%  
5 65% 93% Last Result, Median
6 23% 28%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 72 99.9% 70–75 69–76 67–77 65–79
Scottish National Party 63 61 12% 59–65 58–65 56–67 55–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 57 0.1% 54–59 53–60 52–62 50–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 52 0% 49–54 48–55 46–57 44–58
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 38 0% 34–41 32–41 32–42 32–43
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 35 0% 32–38 32–39 31–40 29–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 27 0% 23–30 22–30 22–31 22–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9% Majority
66 1.1% 99.4%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 1.3% 97%  
69 5% 96% Last Result
70 16% 90%  
71 13% 74% Median
72 16% 61%  
73 13% 45%  
74 14% 33%  
75 11% 19%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.6%  
56 1.0% 98%  
57 1.3% 97%  
58 1.3% 96%  
59 14% 95%  
60 16% 81%  
61 17% 65% Median
62 12% 48%  
63 12% 35% Last Result
64 11% 24%  
65 8% 12% Majority
66 1.3% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.0%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 11% 92%  
55 14% 81%  
56 13% 67%  
57 16% 55% Median
58 13% 39%  
59 16% 26%  
60 5% 10% Last Result
61 1.3% 4%  
62 1.5% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.5% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.4%  
46 1.4% 98.8%  
47 2% 97%  
48 5% 95%  
49 13% 90%  
50 14% 77%  
51 12% 63%  
52 17% 51% Median
53 12% 34%  
54 13% 22%  
55 5% 9% Last Result
56 2% 4%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 5% 99.8%  
33 5% 95%  
34 10% 90%  
35 6% 81% Last Result
36 9% 75%  
37 12% 65% Median
38 14% 53%  
39 14% 39%  
40 13% 25%  
41 8% 11%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.6%  
30 1.4% 98.9%  
31 2% 98%  
32 6% 95%  
33 9% 89%  
34 12% 80%  
35 29% 68% Median
36 11% 39% Last Result
37 8% 28%  
38 11% 20%  
39 6% 9%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 8% 99.7%  
23 6% 92%  
24 8% 85%  
25 7% 77%  
26 13% 70%  
27 14% 57% Median
28 12% 43%  
29 18% 31% Last Result
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations