Opinion Poll by Survation for Scotland in Union, 9–12 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 39.0% 37.0–41.0% 36.5–41.5% 36.0–42.0% 35.1–43.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 59–64 58–65 58–66 55–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 23–27 22–28 22–29 20–30
Scottish Labour 24 25 22–26 22–27 21–27 19–29
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–10 5–11 5–12

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 1.3% 98.9%  
58 3% 98%  
59 11% 95%  
60 30% 84%  
61 21% 54% Median
62 10% 33%  
63 10% 23% Last Result
64 7% 13%  
65 2% 6% Majority
66 1.3% 3%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 7% 98%  
23 12% 91%  
24 24% 79%  
25 27% 55% Median
26 14% 29%  
27 7% 15%  
28 4% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.9% 1.3%  
31 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.7%  
20 0.7% 99.1%  
21 3% 98%  
22 6% 96%  
23 16% 90%  
24 19% 74% Last Result
25 25% 55% Median
26 24% 30%  
27 5% 7%  
28 0.9% 2%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.3% 99.8%  
9 1.3% 99.6%  
10 64% 98% Median
11 13% 34%  
12 15% 21%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9% Last Result
6 12% 97%  
7 9% 85%  
8 49% 76% Median
9 13% 26%  
10 11% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.8%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 99.7% 70–74 69–75 68–76 66–79
Scottish National Party 63 61 6% 59–64 58–65 58–66 55–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 58 0.3% 55–59 54–60 53–61 50–63
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 47–52 46–53 45–54 43–55
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–46 37–48
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–37 28–39
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 33 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 26–38

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.7% Majority
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 1.0% 99.1%  
68 2% 98%  
69 6% 96% Last Result
70 19% 90%  
71 24% 71% Median
72 15% 47%  
73 14% 32%  
74 9% 18%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.5% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 1.3% 98.9%  
58 3% 98%  
59 11% 95%  
60 30% 84%  
61 21% 54% Median
62 10% 33%  
63 10% 23% Last Result
64 7% 13%  
65 2% 6% Majority
66 1.3% 3%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.4%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 9% 91%  
56 14% 82%  
57 15% 68%  
58 24% 53% Median
59 19% 29%  
60 6% 10% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3% Majority
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.7%  
44 1.0% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 4% 96%  
47 9% 92%  
48 17% 83%  
49 17% 66%  
50 20% 49% Median
51 17% 29%  
52 6% 12%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100% Last Result
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.6%  
38 1.0% 99.1%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 7% 91%  
42 15% 84%  
43 21% 69% Median
44 30% 48%  
45 12% 19%  
46 4% 6%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.6%  
29 4% 98%  
30 9% 94%  
31 10% 86%  
32 18% 76%  
33 23% 58% Median
34 16% 35%  
35 12% 19%  
36 4% 7% Last Result
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.4%  
28 1.3% 98.8%  
29 4% 98% Last Result
30 8% 93%  
31 11% 86%  
32 19% 75%  
33 25% 56% Median
34 21% 31%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations