Opinion Poll by Opinium for Sky News, 11–16 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 42.4% 40.5–44.4% 40.0–44.9% 39.5–45.4% 38.6–46.3%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.3% 20.7–23.9% 20.3–24.4% 19.9–24.8% 19.2–25.7%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.8% 17.3–21.2% 16.9–21.6% 16.3–22.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 65 62–68 61–70 61–70 59–72
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 29 25–32 24–32 24–32 24–34
Scottish Labour 24 24 22–27 21–27 20–28 18–30
Scottish Greens 6 6 4–10 3–10 3–10 3–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 3–5 2–5 2–6 2–6

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 1.2% 99.4%  
61 4% 98%  
62 5% 94%  
63 21% 89% Last Result
64 14% 68%  
65 21% 54% Median, Majority
66 13% 33%  
67 8% 20%  
68 4% 13%  
69 3% 8%  
70 3% 5%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 6% 99.6%  
25 11% 94%  
26 11% 83%  
27 9% 71%  
28 11% 63%  
29 8% 52% Median
30 9% 43%  
31 15% 34% Last Result
32 17% 19%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 1.0% 99.3%  
20 1.1% 98%  
21 3% 97%  
22 12% 94%  
23 10% 82%  
24 29% 72% Last Result, Median
25 16% 43%  
26 12% 27%  
27 10% 15%  
28 3% 5%  
29 1.0% 2%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 8% 99.9%  
4 12% 92%  
5 18% 80%  
6 17% 62% Last Result, Median
7 8% 45%  
8 7% 37%  
9 12% 31%  
10 18% 18%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 7% 93%  
4 16% 85%  
5 67% 69% Last Result, Median
6 2% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 99.7% 68–76 67–77 66–78 65–80
Scottish National Party 63 65 54% 62–68 61–70 61–70 59–72
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 58 0.3% 53–61 52–62 51–63 49–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 53 0% 49–57 48–57 48–58 45–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 32–39 32–40 31–40 29–42
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 33 0% 29–37 28–37 28–37 27–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 29 0% 26–32 25–32 24–33 22–35

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.7% Majority
66 3% 99.0%  
67 5% 96%  
68 7% 91%  
69 15% 84% Last Result
70 12% 69%  
71 8% 57% Median
72 10% 49%  
73 11% 39%  
74 10% 28%  
75 7% 18%  
76 5% 10%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.9% 1.5%  
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 1.2% 99.4%  
61 4% 98%  
62 5% 94%  
63 21% 89% Last Result
64 14% 68%  
65 21% 54% Median, Majority
66 13% 33%  
67 8% 20%  
68 4% 13%  
69 3% 8%  
70 3% 5%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.9% 99.4%  
51 1.3% 98.5%  
52 3% 97%  
53 5% 95%  
54 7% 90%  
55 10% 82%  
56 11% 72%  
57 10% 61%  
58 8% 51% Median
59 12% 43%  
60 15% 31% Last Result
61 7% 16%  
62 5% 9%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.3% Majority
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 0.6% 99.3%  
47 0.9% 98.7%  
48 4% 98%  
49 7% 94%  
50 11% 87%  
51 10% 77%  
52 10% 67%  
53 7% 56% Median
54 13% 49%  
55 16% 36% Last Result
56 9% 20%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.0% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 11% 96%  
33 10% 85%  
34 8% 75%  
35 18% 67% Last Result, Median
36 13% 50%  
37 11% 36%  
38 13% 26%  
39 7% 13%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.5%  
28 4% 98%  
29 7% 94%  
30 8% 87%  
31 11% 79%  
32 10% 68%  
33 13% 59%  
34 9% 46% Median
35 9% 37%  
36 13% 28% Last Result
37 14% 15%  
38 0.8% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.3%  
24 3% 98.7%  
25 3% 96%  
26 5% 93%  
27 13% 88%  
28 15% 75%  
29 23% 60% Last Result, Median
30 14% 37%  
31 10% 23%  
32 9% 13%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.8% 1.5%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations