Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 19–22 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 45.5% 43.5–47.5% 42.9–48.1% 42.4–48.6% 41.5–49.6%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.8% 22.1–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.5% 20.4–27.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 67 65–71 65–72 64–73 64–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 32 27–33 26–33 26–34 25–35
Scottish Labour 24 17 17–19 17–21 16–22 15–22
Scottish Greens 6 10 5–10 5–10 5–10 4–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–6

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
64 2% 99.6%  
65 26% 97% Majority
66 11% 71%  
67 18% 60% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 6% 33%  
70 7% 27%  
71 11% 20%  
72 4% 9%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.8% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 8% 99.2%  
27 6% 91%  
28 4% 85%  
29 6% 81%  
30 10% 75%  
31 13% 64% Last Result
32 40% 51% Median
33 7% 11%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.8% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.3% 99.8%  
15 0.4% 99.5%  
16 3% 99.1%  
17 74% 96% Median
18 10% 21%  
19 4% 12%  
20 2% 8%  
21 2% 5%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.5%  
5 9% 98%  
6 4% 90% Last Result
7 4% 86%  
8 6% 82%  
9 2% 76%  
10 72% 73% Median
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 16% 100%  
3 8% 84%  
4 13% 76%  
5 61% 63% Last Result, Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 76 100% 74–81 73–81 71–83 70–83
Scottish National Party 63 67 97% 65–71 65–72 64–73 64–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 53 0% 48–55 48–56 46–58 46–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 44–50 43–52 43–53 42–55
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 35 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 32 0% 28–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 19–23 19–25 19–26 18–27

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
70 1.3% 99.7%  
71 1.3% 98%  
72 1.5% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 30% 89%  
76 12% 59%  
77 16% 46% Median
78 8% 31%  
79 5% 23%  
80 5% 18%  
81 8% 13%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
64 2% 99.6%  
65 26% 97% Majority
66 11% 71%  
67 18% 60% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 6% 33%  
70 7% 27%  
71 11% 20%  
72 4% 9%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.8% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 2% 99.9%  
47 2% 97%  
48 8% 95%  
49 5% 87%  
50 5% 82%  
51 8% 77%  
52 16% 69%  
53 12% 54%  
54 30% 41% Median
55 4% 11%  
56 3% 7%  
57 1.5% 4%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 7% 99.4%  
44 5% 92%  
45 3% 87%  
46 6% 83%  
47 9% 77%  
48 12% 68%  
49 35% 56% Median
50 11% 21%  
51 4% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 1.4% 4%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.5% 100%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 3% 97%  
31 8% 94%  
32 6% 86%  
33 6% 80%  
34 10% 73%  
35 14% 64%  
36 13% 49% Last Result
37 31% 36% Median
38 3% 6%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.7%  
26 2% 98.8%  
27 5% 97%  
28 5% 92%  
29 12% 87%  
30 11% 75%  
31 13% 64%  
32 43% 50% Median
33 5% 8%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 11% 99.0%  
20 9% 88%  
21 13% 80%  
22 51% 67% Median
23 7% 16%  
24 3% 9%  
25 2% 5%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations