Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for STV News, 30 March–4 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 38.0% | 36.0–39.9% | 35.5–40.5% | 35.1–41.0% | 34.1–41.9% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.9–24.4% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Alba Party | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 61 | 59–67 | 59–68 | 59–69 | 56–69 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 25 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 23 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–27 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 5 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Alba Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 10% | 98% | |
| 60 | 23% | 88% | |
| 61 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 62 | 7% | 43% | |
| 63 | 12% | 35% | Last Result |
| 64 | 4% | 23% | |
| 65 | 4% | 19% | Majority |
| 66 | 3% | 15% | |
| 67 | 2% | 12% | |
| 68 | 6% | 10% | |
| 69 | 3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 4% | 98% | |
| 23 | 6% | 94% | |
| 24 | 22% | 88% | |
| 25 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 26 | 12% | 48% | |
| 27 | 13% | 37% | |
| 28 | 11% | 24% | |
| 29 | 7% | 12% | |
| 30 | 3% | 6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98% | |
| 19 | 6% | 94% | |
| 20 | 5% | 88% | |
| 21 | 14% | 83% | |
| 22 | 12% | 69% | |
| 23 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 24 | 22% | 40% | Last Result |
| 25 | 16% | 18% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 24% | 92% | |
| 13 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 38% | |
| 15 | 19% | 23% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 8% | 98% | |
| 5 | 56% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 24% | 34% | |
| 7 | 5% | 10% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party | 69 | 75 | 100% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 71–82 | 69–82 |
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 75 | 100% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 71–82 | 69–82 |
| Scottish National Party – Alba Party | 63 | 61 | 19% | 59–67 | 59–68 | 59–69 | 56–69 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 61 | 19% | 59–67 | 59–68 | 59–69 | 56–69 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 54 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–58 | 47–60 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 48 | 0% | 44–52 | 43–52 | 43–53 | 42–55 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 41 | 0% | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–45 | 35–46 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 31 | 0% | 28–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 28 | 0% | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 | 22–33 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 70 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 7% | 94% | |
| 73 | 17% | 87% | |
| 74 | 14% | 70% | Median |
| 75 | 12% | 56% | |
| 76 | 14% | 43% | |
| 77 | 8% | 29% | |
| 78 | 4% | 21% | |
| 79 | 5% | 17% | |
| 80 | 5% | 12% | |
| 81 | 4% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 70 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 7% | 94% | |
| 73 | 17% | 87% | |
| 74 | 14% | 70% | Median |
| 75 | 12% | 56% | |
| 76 | 14% | 43% | |
| 77 | 8% | 29% | |
| 78 | 4% | 21% | |
| 79 | 5% | 17% | |
| 80 | 5% | 12% | |
| 81 | 4% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 10% | 98% | |
| 60 | 23% | 88% | |
| 61 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 62 | 7% | 43% | |
| 63 | 12% | 35% | Last Result |
| 64 | 4% | 23% | |
| 65 | 4% | 19% | Majority |
| 66 | 3% | 15% | |
| 67 | 2% | 12% | |
| 68 | 6% | 10% | |
| 69 | 3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 10% | 98% | |
| 60 | 23% | 88% | |
| 61 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 62 | 7% | 43% | |
| 63 | 12% | 35% | Last Result |
| 64 | 4% | 23% | |
| 65 | 4% | 19% | Majority |
| 66 | 3% | 15% | |
| 67 | 2% | 12% | |
| 68 | 6% | 10% | |
| 69 | 3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 4% | 97% | |
| 49 | 5% | 93% | |
| 50 | 5% | 88% | |
| 51 | 4% | 83% | |
| 52 | 8% | 79% | |
| 53 | 14% | 71% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 57% | |
| 55 | 14% | 44% | |
| 56 | 17% | 30% | |
| 57 | 7% | 13% | |
| 58 | 4% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 5% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 93% | |
| 45 | 6% | 88% | |
| 46 | 7% | 82% | |
| 47 | 10% | 76% | |
| 48 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 50% | |
| 50 | 15% | 36% | |
| 51 | 11% | 21% | |
| 52 | 6% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 35 | 4% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 36 | 4% | 96% | |
| 37 | 4% | 92% | |
| 38 | 4% | 89% | |
| 39 | 8% | 84% | |
| 40 | 10% | 76% | |
| 41 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 49% | |
| 43 | 13% | 34% | |
| 44 | 13% | 20% | |
| 45 | 6% | 7% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 94% | |
| 29 | 15% | 88% | |
| 30 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 57% | |
| 32 | 14% | 45% | |
| 33 | 10% | 31% | |
| 34 | 13% | 21% | |
| 35 | 4% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 3% | 97% | |
| 24 | 5% | 94% | |
| 25 | 5% | 89% | |
| 26 | 10% | 84% | |
| 27 | 12% | 74% | |
| 28 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 29 | 23% | 49% | Last Result |
| 30 | 19% | 27% | |
| 31 | 5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MORI
- Commissioner(s): STV News
- Fieldwork period: 30 March–4 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1038
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.40%