Opinion Poll by Opinium for Sky News, 1–6 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 44.0% | 42.0–46.0% | 41.5–46.6% | 41.0–47.1% | 40.0–48.0% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.6% | 18.8–25.5% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Alba Party | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 68 | 65–72 | 64–73 | 64–73 | 63–74 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 28 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 23–34 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 22 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 17–27 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 6 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Alba Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 64 | 5% | 98% | |
| 65 | 19% | 93% | Majority |
| 66 | 9% | 74% | |
| 67 | 11% | 65% | |
| 68 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 69 | 9% | 47% | |
| 70 | 9% | 38% | |
| 71 | 17% | 29% | |
| 72 | 6% | 11% | |
| 73 | 5% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 10% | 96% | |
| 26 | 20% | 87% | |
| 27 | 10% | 66% | |
| 28 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 7% | 48% | |
| 30 | 9% | 41% | |
| 31 | 10% | 32% | Last Result |
| 32 | 20% | 22% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 9% | 88% | |
| 19 | 8% | 79% | |
| 20 | 7% | 71% | |
| 21 | 7% | 64% | |
| 22 | 29% | 57% | Median |
| 23 | 12% | 28% | |
| 24 | 12% | 17% | Last Result |
| 25 | 3% | 5% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 11% | 94% | |
| 5 | 27% | 84% | |
| 6 | 10% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 6% | 47% | |
| 8 | 5% | 41% | |
| 9 | 7% | 36% | |
| 10 | 29% | 29% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 89% | |
| 4 | 16% | 79% | |
| 5 | 59% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party | 69 | 75 | 100% | 70–80 | 69–81 | 69–82 | 68–83 |
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 75 | 100% | 70–80 | 69–81 | 69–82 | 68–83 |
| Scottish National Party – Alba Party | 63 | 68 | 93% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 64–73 | 63–74 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 68 | 93% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 64–73 | 63–74 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 54 | 0% | 49–59 | 48–60 | 47–60 | 46–61 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 49 | 0% | 45–54 | 44–55 | 43–55 | 43–57 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 32 | 0% | 29–35 | 28–37 | 27–38 | 25–39 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 33 | 0% | 29–37 | 28–37 | 28–37 | 26–38 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 26 | 0% | 22–29 | 21–29 | 21–30 | 19–32 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 70 | 10% | 94% | |
| 71 | 4% | 85% | |
| 72 | 6% | 80% | |
| 73 | 6% | 75% | |
| 74 | 8% | 68% | Median |
| 75 | 15% | 60% | |
| 76 | 13% | 45% | |
| 77 | 8% | 32% | |
| 78 | 6% | 24% | |
| 79 | 5% | 18% | |
| 80 | 5% | 13% | |
| 81 | 5% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 70 | 10% | 94% | |
| 71 | 4% | 85% | |
| 72 | 6% | 80% | |
| 73 | 6% | 75% | |
| 74 | 8% | 68% | Median |
| 75 | 15% | 60% | |
| 76 | 13% | 45% | |
| 77 | 8% | 32% | |
| 78 | 6% | 24% | |
| 79 | 5% | 18% | |
| 80 | 5% | 13% | |
| 81 | 5% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 64 | 5% | 98% | |
| 65 | 19% | 93% | Majority |
| 66 | 9% | 74% | |
| 67 | 11% | 65% | |
| 68 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 69 | 9% | 47% | |
| 70 | 9% | 38% | |
| 71 | 17% | 29% | |
| 72 | 6% | 11% | |
| 73 | 5% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 64 | 5% | 98% | |
| 65 | 19% | 93% | Majority |
| 66 | 9% | 74% | |
| 67 | 11% | 65% | |
| 68 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 69 | 9% | 47% | |
| 70 | 9% | 38% | |
| 71 | 17% | 29% | |
| 72 | 6% | 11% | |
| 73 | 5% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 48 | 5% | 97% | |
| 49 | 5% | 92% | |
| 50 | 5% | 87% | |
| 51 | 6% | 82% | |
| 52 | 8% | 76% | |
| 53 | 13% | 68% | |
| 54 | 15% | 55% | |
| 55 | 8% | 40% | Median |
| 56 | 6% | 32% | |
| 57 | 6% | 25% | |
| 58 | 4% | 20% | |
| 59 | 10% | 15% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 61 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 5% | 92% | |
| 46 | 5% | 87% | |
| 47 | 6% | 82% | |
| 48 | 13% | 76% | |
| 49 | 17% | 64% | |
| 50 | 11% | 47% | Median |
| 51 | 6% | 36% | |
| 52 | 7% | 30% | |
| 53 | 4% | 23% | |
| 54 | 12% | 19% | |
| 55 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 6% | 95% | |
| 30 | 7% | 89% | |
| 31 | 10% | 82% | |
| 32 | 31% | 72% | |
| 33 | 17% | 42% | Median |
| 34 | 10% | 25% | |
| 35 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 36 | 3% | 9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 8% | 94% | |
| 30 | 9% | 86% | |
| 31 | 16% | 77% | |
| 32 | 9% | 61% | |
| 33 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 34 | 8% | 41% | |
| 35 | 9% | 34% | |
| 36 | 8% | 25% | Last Result |
| 37 | 16% | 17% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 12% | 94% | |
| 23 | 9% | 82% | |
| 24 | 11% | 73% | |
| 25 | 7% | 62% | |
| 26 | 9% | 55% | |
| 27 | 24% | 46% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 22% | |
| 29 | 9% | 13% | Last Result |
| 30 | 2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinium
- Commissioner(s): Sky News
- Fieldwork period: 1–6 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1023
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.55%