Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Believe in Scotland, 9–12 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.0% 34.1–38.0% 33.6–38.6% 33.1–39.1% 32.2–40.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.7–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Alba Party 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
All For Unity 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 58–63 55–64 54–65 53–67
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 24–31 24–32 23–32 22–34
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 9–11 7–12 7–12 5–13
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 4–7 4–8 3–9
Alba Party 0 7 2–8 1–8 0–8 0–8
All For Unity 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 2% 94%  
57 2% 93%  
58 4% 90%  
59 13% 86%  
60 21% 73%  
61 23% 52% Median
62 13% 29%  
63 7% 16% Last Result
64 5% 9%  
65 3% 4% Majority
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 14% 97%  
25 12% 82%  
26 12% 70%  
27 13% 59% Median
28 14% 46%  
29 11% 32%  
30 9% 20%  
31 5% 12% Last Result
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.6%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.8%  
17 10% 99.1%  
18 18% 89%  
19 29% 72% Median
20 12% 43%  
21 11% 31%  
22 7% 20%  
23 5% 13%  
24 4% 8% Last Result
25 3% 4%  
26 1.2% 1.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.4% 99.8%  
6 1.3% 99.4% Last Result
7 4% 98%  
8 3% 94%  
9 8% 90%  
10 55% 83% Median
11 20% 28%  
12 7% 8%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.7%  
4 8% 98.8%  
5 47% 91% Last Result, Median
6 35% 44%  
7 4% 8%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.6% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 3% 95%  
2 4% 92%  
3 5% 88%  
4 4% 83%  
5 6% 79%  
6 14% 73%  
7 24% 59% Median
8 35% 35%  
9 0% 0%  

All For Unity

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the All For Unity page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 77 100% 72–80 71–81 69–82 67–84
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 96% 67–74 65–75 64–75 62–77
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 67 76% 62–70 60–71 59–72 57–73
Scottish National Party 63 61 4% 58–63 55–64 54–65 53–67
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 52 0% 49–57 48–58 47–60 45–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 47 0% 44–52 43–53 42–54 41–57
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 33–38 32–40 31–41 30–42
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 33 0% 29–36 29–37 28–38 27–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 25 0% 23–29 22–30 22–31 21–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Majority
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 99.3%  
69 1.5% 99.0% Last Result
70 2% 97%  
71 4% 95%  
72 5% 92%  
73 5% 87%  
74 7% 81%  
75 7% 74%  
76 9% 67%  
77 15% 58%  
78 16% 43% Median
79 12% 27%  
80 9% 15%  
81 4% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.5% 99.4%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96% Majority
66 2% 94%  
67 4% 91%  
68 6% 87%  
69 11% 82% Last Result
70 18% 71%  
71 18% 53% Median
72 16% 34%  
73 8% 19%  
74 5% 10%  
75 4% 6%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 0.3% 99.3%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 5% 91%  
63 4% 86% Last Result
64 6% 82%  
65 7% 76% Majority
66 11% 69%  
67 15% 59%  
68 18% 44% Median
69 13% 26%  
70 7% 13%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 2% 94%  
57 2% 93%  
58 4% 90%  
59 13% 86%  
60 21% 73%  
61 23% 52% Median
62 13% 29%  
63 7% 16% Last Result
64 5% 9%  
65 3% 4% Majority
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.7% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 4% 97%  
49 9% 94%  
50 12% 85%  
51 16% 73% Median
52 15% 57%  
53 9% 42%  
54 7% 33%  
55 7% 26%  
56 5% 19%  
57 5% 13%  
58 4% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.5% 3% Last Result
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 1.1% 99.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 6% 96%  
44 10% 90%  
45 14% 80%  
46 15% 66% Median
47 13% 51%  
48 9% 38%  
49 7% 29%  
50 7% 22%  
51 5% 15%  
52 5% 10%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 0.9% 2% Last Result
56 0.3% 0.8%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.7% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 6% 97%  
33 13% 91%  
34 18% 79% Median
35 19% 60% Last Result
36 16% 41%  
37 10% 25%  
38 6% 15%  
39 4% 9%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.1% 1.5%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.6%  
28 3% 99.1%  
29 9% 96%  
30 11% 87%  
31 11% 76%  
32 11% 65% Median
33 16% 54%  
34 12% 37%  
35 10% 25%  
36 6% 16% Last Result
37 5% 10%  
38 2% 5%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.5%  
22 7% 98%  
23 11% 91%  
24 24% 81% Median
25 18% 57%  
26 13% 39%  
27 9% 25%  
28 5% 16%  
29 5% 11% Last Result
30 3% 6%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.8% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations