Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 16–20 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 38.8% 36.8–40.8% 36.3–41.3% 35.8–41.8% 34.9–42.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 20.9–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.4% 15.9–19.0% 15.5–19.5% 15.2–19.9% 14.5–20.7%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Alba Party 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 63 60–65 59–66 57–67 56–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 32 29–34 28–35 27–36 25–37
Scottish Labour 24 22 19–25 17–26 17–26 17–27
Scottish Greens 6 7 5–10 4–10 4–10 3–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 4–5 3–6 3–6 2–7
Alba Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.8%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 13% 92%  
61 13% 79%  
62 14% 66%  
63 16% 52% Last Result, Median
64 15% 36%  
65 14% 21% Majority
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.6%  
26 1.2% 98.7%  
27 2% 98%  
28 3% 95%  
29 4% 92%  
30 9% 88%  
31 10% 80% Last Result
32 40% 69% Median
33 17% 29%  
34 5% 12%  
35 4% 7%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.9% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 6% 100%  
18 2% 94%  
19 5% 91%  
20 6% 86%  
21 7% 80%  
22 24% 73% Median
23 10% 49%  
24 17% 39% Last Result
25 16% 22%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.8% 1.1%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 5% 98%  
5 10% 92%  
6 19% 82% Last Result
7 14% 63% Median
8 9% 49%  
9 9% 40%  
10 30% 31%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 4% 98%  
4 16% 94%  
5 69% 78% Last Result, Median
6 7% 8%  
7 0.6% 1.0%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 70 97% 67–74 66–75 64–76 62–77
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 70 97% 67–74 66–75 64–76 62–77
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 63 21% 60–65 59–66 57–67 56–68
Scottish National Party 63 63 21% 60–65 59–66 57–67 56–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 59 3% 55–62 54–63 53–65 52–67
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 54 0% 50–57 49–59 49–60 47–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 37 0% 34–39 32–40 31–41 29–43
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 32–38 31–39 31–39 29–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 27 0% 23–30 22–31 22–31 21–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 2% 98.7%  
65 2% 97% Majority
66 4% 95%  
67 12% 91%  
68 11% 79%  
69 11% 68% Last Result
70 18% 57% Median
71 9% 39%  
72 8% 30%  
73 6% 22%  
74 6% 16%  
75 7% 10%  
76 1.5% 3%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 2% 98.7%  
65 2% 97% Majority
66 4% 95%  
67 12% 91%  
68 11% 79%  
69 11% 68% Last Result
70 18% 57% Median
71 9% 39%  
72 8% 30%  
73 6% 22%  
74 6% 16%  
75 7% 10%  
76 1.5% 3%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.8%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 13% 92%  
61 13% 79%  
62 14% 66%  
63 16% 52% Last Result, Median
64 15% 36%  
65 14% 21% Majority
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.8%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 13% 92%  
61 13% 79%  
62 14% 66%  
63 16% 52% Last Result, Median
64 15% 36%  
65 14% 21% Majority
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 1.3% 99.7%  
53 1.5% 98%  
54 7% 97%  
55 6% 90%  
56 6% 84%  
57 8% 78%  
58 9% 70%  
59 18% 61% Median
60 11% 43% Last Result
61 11% 32%  
62 12% 21%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 3% Majority
66 0.8% 1.3%  
67 0.5% 0.5%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 1.3% 99.5%  
49 5% 98%  
50 7% 93%  
51 7% 86%  
52 7% 79%  
53 6% 72%  
54 19% 66% Median
55 15% 47% Last Result
56 10% 32%  
57 13% 22%  
58 4% 9%  
59 2% 5%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.9% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.6%  
30 0.9% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 5% 91%  
35 12% 86%  
36 12% 74% Last Result
37 34% 62% Median
38 14% 27%  
39 6% 13%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.9% 1.4%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 1.5% 99.4%  
31 4% 98%  
32 15% 94%  
33 15% 79%  
34 12% 65% Median
35 14% 52% Last Result
36 12% 39%  
37 12% 27%  
38 8% 14%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 6% 99.1%  
23 3% 93%  
24 6% 90%  
25 7% 84%  
26 9% 77%  
27 20% 68% Median
28 11% 47%  
29 17% 36% Last Result
30 14% 19%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.9% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations