Opinion Poll by Survation for The Sunday Post, 20–22 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 35.4% | 33.5–37.3% | 33.0–37.9% | 32.5–38.4% | 31.6–39.3% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 22.2% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.8–24.8% | 19.0–25.7% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 20.2% | 18.6–21.8% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.1–23.5% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Alba Party | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 67 | 62–70 | 61–70 | 60–70 | 59–71 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 25 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 21–29 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 21 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Alba Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 6% | 93% | |
| 63 | 9% | 87% | Last Result |
| 64 | 7% | 78% | |
| 65 | 9% | 71% | Majority |
| 66 | 10% | 62% | |
| 67 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 19% | 43% | |
| 69 | 11% | 24% | |
| 70 | 12% | 13% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 7% | 98% | |
| 24 | 19% | 91% | Last Result |
| 25 | 42% | 72% | Median |
| 26 | 15% | 30% | |
| 27 | 9% | 15% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 20 | 23% | 90% | |
| 21 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 22 | 13% | 46% | |
| 23 | 8% | 33% | |
| 24 | 17% | 25% | |
| 25 | 5% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 97% | |
| 10 | 58% | 93% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 35% | |
| 12 | 6% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 20% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 18% | 79% | Last Result |
| 6 | 39% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 22% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party | 69 | 77 | 100% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–81 | 69–81 |
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 77 | 100% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–81 | 69–81 |
| Scottish National Party – Alba Party | 63 | 67 | 71% | 62–70 | 61–70 | 60–70 | 59–71 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 67 | 71% | 62–70 | 61–70 | 60–70 | 59–71 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 52 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–58 | 48–59 | 48–60 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 55 | 46 | 0% | 44–51 | 44–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 41 | 0% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 31 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 27 | 0% | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 23–33 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 70 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 5% | 94% | |
| 73 | 9% | 88% | |
| 74 | 6% | 80% | |
| 75 | 9% | 73% | |
| 76 | 10% | 64% | |
| 77 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 78 | 19% | 46% | |
| 79 | 11% | 28% | |
| 80 | 8% | 17% | |
| 81 | 8% | 8% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 70 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 5% | 94% | |
| 73 | 9% | 88% | |
| 74 | 6% | 80% | |
| 75 | 9% | 73% | |
| 76 | 10% | 64% | |
| 77 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 78 | 19% | 46% | |
| 79 | 11% | 28% | |
| 80 | 8% | 17% | |
| 81 | 8% | 8% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 6% | 93% | |
| 63 | 9% | 87% | Last Result |
| 64 | 7% | 78% | |
| 65 | 9% | 71% | Majority |
| 66 | 10% | 62% | |
| 67 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 19% | 43% | |
| 69 | 11% | 24% | |
| 70 | 12% | 13% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 6% | 93% | |
| 63 | 9% | 87% | Last Result |
| 64 | 7% | 78% | |
| 65 | 9% | 71% | Majority |
| 66 | 10% | 62% | |
| 67 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 19% | 43% | |
| 69 | 11% | 24% | |
| 70 | 12% | 13% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 8% | 100% | |
| 49 | 8% | 92% | |
| 50 | 11% | 83% | |
| 51 | 19% | 72% | |
| 52 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 53 | 10% | 46% | |
| 54 | 9% | 36% | |
| 55 | 6% | 27% | |
| 56 | 9% | 20% | |
| 57 | 5% | 12% | |
| 58 | 3% | 6% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 18% | 98% | |
| 45 | 22% | 80% | |
| 46 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 48% | |
| 48 | 9% | 38% | |
| 49 | 10% | 29% | |
| 50 | 8% | 19% | |
| 51 | 5% | 10% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 13% | 93% | |
| 40 | 19% | 80% | |
| 41 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 42 | 19% | 40% | |
| 43 | 12% | 21% | |
| 44 | 5% | 9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 10% | 96% | |
| 29 | 12% | 86% | Last Result |
| 30 | 15% | 74% | |
| 31 | 25% | 59% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 34% | |
| 33 | 9% | 17% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 7% | 97% | |
| 25 | 14% | 90% | |
| 26 | 19% | 76% | |
| 27 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 42% | |
| 29 | 9% | 32% | |
| 30 | 9% | 23% | |
| 31 | 10% | 14% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Survation
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Post
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1037
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.88%