Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Scot Goes Pop, 21–26 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.0% 34.2–37.9% 33.6–38.5% 33.2–38.9% 32.3–39.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.0% 19.5–22.7% 19.1–23.2% 18.7–23.6% 18.0–24.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.2–21.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.4–12.0% 7.9–12.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.6% 4.4–8.2%
Alba Party 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.6% 4.4–8.2%
All For Unity 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 60 58–62 57–64 55–65 53–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 23–29 23–30 22–30 21–32
Scottish Labour 24 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 7–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–8 4–9
Alba Party 0 7 2–8 0–8 0–8 0–8
All For Unity 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.4% 99.7%  
54 0.5% 98%  
55 0.9% 98%  
56 0.9% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 7% 94%  
59 22% 87%  
60 36% 65% Median
61 14% 29%  
62 5% 14%  
63 3% 9% Last Result
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3% Majority
66 0.9% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.7%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 16% 97%  
24 28% 81%  
25 17% 54% Median
26 8% 37%  
27 7% 28%  
28 7% 21%  
29 6% 13%  
30 5% 7%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 7% 98%  
19 17% 91%  
20 9% 74%  
21 21% 64% Median
22 13% 44%  
23 12% 30%  
24 9% 18% Last Result
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.9% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.1%  
9 2% 98%  
10 38% 96%  
11 24% 58% Median
12 29% 35%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 10% 99.7%  
5 46% 90% Last Result, Median
6 35% 44%  
7 5% 8%  
8 2% 3%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 2% 94%  
2 4% 92%  
3 7% 88%  
4 5% 81%  
5 5% 76%  
6 11% 71%  
7 28% 60% Median
8 32% 32%  
9 0% 0%  

All For Unity

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the All For Unity page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 77 100% 72–80 71–81 70–82 69–84
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 98.8% 69–73 68–75 66–76 63–78
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 66 73% 62–69 60–70 59–71 58–73
Scottish National Party 63 60 3% 58–62 57–64 55–65 53–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 52 0% 49–57 48–58 47–59 45–60
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 46 0% 44–51 42–52 42–53 40–55
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 37 0% 34–41 34–42 33–43 33–44
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 30 0% 28–35 28–35 27–36 26–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 27 0% 24–30 23–31 23–31 22–33

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
70 1.3% 98.7%  
71 3% 97%  
72 5% 94%  
73 3% 89%  
74 5% 86%  
75 8% 81%  
76 14% 73%  
77 11% 60%  
78 20% 49% Median
79 17% 29%  
80 5% 12%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.8% 1.0%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.3%  
65 1.3% 98.8% Majority
66 1.1% 98%  
67 1.2% 96%  
68 5% 95%  
69 13% 91% Last Result
70 18% 78%  
71 23% 60% Median
72 20% 36%  
73 7% 17%  
74 4% 10%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.5%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 4% 97%  
61 3% 93%  
62 5% 90%  
63 7% 86% Last Result
64 5% 79%  
65 8% 73% Majority
66 18% 65%  
67 17% 47% Median
68 14% 30%  
69 9% 16%  
70 2% 7%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.4% 99.7%  
54 0.5% 98%  
55 0.9% 98%  
56 0.9% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 7% 94%  
59 22% 87%  
60 36% 65% Median
61 14% 29%  
62 5% 14%  
63 3% 9% Last Result
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3% Majority
66 0.9% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.0%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 5% 93%  
50 17% 88%  
51 20% 71% Median
52 11% 51%  
53 14% 40%  
54 8% 27%  
55 5% 19%  
56 3% 14%  
57 5% 11%  
58 3% 6%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.0%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 94%  
44 7% 91%  
45 20% 83%  
46 17% 63% Median
47 14% 46%  
48 9% 32%  
49 6% 23%  
50 5% 17%  
51 4% 11%  
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 8% 97%  
35 9% 90% Last Result
36 12% 81%  
37 20% 69% Median
38 14% 49%  
39 13% 35%  
40 7% 22%  
41 7% 15%  
42 6% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.0%  
45 0.4% 0.4%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.7%  
27 3% 98.9%  
28 12% 96%  
29 20% 84%  
30 18% 64% Median
31 11% 46%  
32 9% 35%  
33 8% 26%  
34 8% 18%  
35 6% 10%  
36 3% 4% Last Result
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 4% 98%  
24 13% 94%  
25 10% 81%  
26 16% 70% Median
27 21% 54%  
28 10% 33%  
29 9% 23% Last Result
30 8% 14%  
31 4% 6%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations