Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 23–27 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 35.3% 33.4–37.2% 32.8–37.8% 32.4–38.3% 31.5–39.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.1%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.6% 17.1–20.2% 16.6–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Alba Party 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 60 56–62 55–63 54–64 52–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 29 26–32 25–33 24–33 23–35
Scottish Labour 24 25 23–26 22–27 21–29 19–31
Scottish Greens 6 11 10–12 10–13 10–14 9–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 4–5 3–6 3–6 2–7
Alba Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.3%  
54 3% 98.5%  
55 3% 95%  
56 3% 92%  
57 4% 89%  
58 4% 85%  
59 28% 81%  
60 27% 53% Median
61 12% 26%  
62 5% 14%  
63 6% 9% Last Result
64 1.3% 3%  
65 1.2% 2% Majority
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 4% 97%  
26 9% 93%  
27 11% 84%  
28 16% 72%  
29 16% 56% Median
30 17% 40%  
31 13% 24% Last Result
32 3% 11%  
33 6% 8%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.5% 99.7%  
20 1.0% 99.2%  
21 3% 98%  
22 3% 96%  
23 5% 92%  
24 27% 87% Last Result
25 41% 60% Median
26 12% 20%  
27 3% 7%  
28 2% 4%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.5% 1.0%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.9%  
9 1.4% 99.7%  
10 30% 98%  
11 28% 69% Median
12 30% 40%  
13 6% 10%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 3% 98%  
4 22% 95%  
5 64% 73% Last Result, Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.4% 0.8%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 71 98% 68–74 66–74 65–75 63–77
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 98% 68–74 66–74 65–75 63–77
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 60 2% 56–62 55–63 54–64 52–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 58 2% 55–61 55–63 54–64 52–66
Scottish National Party 63 60 2% 56–62 55–63 54–64 52–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 53 0% 51–57 50–58 49–59 47–61
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 41 0% 38–43 37–44 36–45 34–47
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 30 0% 27–31 26–32 25–34 23–36

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 2% 98% Majority
66 3% 97%  
67 3% 93%  
68 4% 90%  
69 12% 86% Last Result
70 19% 75%  
71 18% 55% Median
72 16% 37%  
73 11% 21%  
74 6% 10%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 2% 98% Majority
66 3% 97%  
67 3% 93%  
68 4% 90%  
69 12% 86% Last Result
70 19% 75%  
71 18% 55% Median
72 16% 37%  
73 11% 21%  
74 6% 10%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.3%  
54 3% 98.5%  
55 3% 95%  
56 3% 92%  
57 4% 89%  
58 4% 85%  
59 28% 81%  
60 27% 53% Median
61 12% 26%  
62 5% 14%  
63 6% 9% Last Result
64 1.3% 3%  
65 1.2% 2% Majority
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.3%  
54 3% 98%  
55 6% 95%  
56 11% 90%  
57 16% 79%  
58 18% 63%  
59 19% 45% Median
60 12% 25% Last Result
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 10%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 2% Majority
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.3%  
54 3% 98.5%  
55 3% 95%  
56 3% 92%  
57 4% 89%  
58 4% 85%  
59 28% 81%  
60 27% 53% Median
61 12% 26%  
62 5% 14%  
63 6% 9% Last Result
64 1.3% 3%  
65 1.2% 2% Majority
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.8% 99.5%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 5% 97%  
51 11% 92%  
52 14% 81%  
53 18% 67%  
54 19% 50% Median
55 13% 31% Last Result
56 7% 17%  
57 4% 11%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.5% Last Result
36 2% 98.6%  
37 2% 96%  
38 5% 94%  
39 15% 89%  
40 19% 74%  
41 22% 55% Median
42 20% 33%  
43 7% 13%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.6% 1.4%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 1.2% 99.7%  
29 3% 98%  
30 4% 96%  
31 9% 92%  
32 13% 82%  
33 17% 69%  
34 16% 52% Median
35 20% 36%  
36 6% 16% Last Result
37 3% 10%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 1.1% 99.5%  
25 1.3% 98%  
26 3% 97%  
27 5% 94%  
28 10% 88%  
29 28% 78% Last Result
30 30% 50% Median
31 12% 20%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 5%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.5% 1.1%  
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations