Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Herald, 27–30 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 37.0% 35.1–39.0% 34.5–39.6% 34.0–40.0% 33.2–41.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Alba Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 59–65 57–68 55–68 53–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 28 25–32 24–33 24–33 22–34
Scottish Labour 24 21 18–24 17–25 17–25 16–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–11 9–12 8–12 6–13
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–11 6–12 5–13
Alba Party 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–6

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 1.1% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 98.8%  
55 1.1% 98%  
56 1.0% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 12% 90%  
60 20% 78%  
61 21% 58% Median
62 13% 38%  
63 7% 25% Last Result
64 4% 17%  
65 4% 13% Majority
66 3% 9%  
67 1.3% 7%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.1% 1.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 1.3% 99.1%  
24 4% 98%  
25 11% 93%  
26 15% 82%  
27 13% 67%  
28 15% 54% Median
29 11% 39%  
30 11% 28%  
31 6% 17% Last Result
32 5% 11%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.2% 100%  
17 8% 98.8%  
18 12% 91%  
19 10% 79%  
20 12% 69%  
21 16% 57% Median
22 14% 41%  
23 14% 28%  
24 8% 14% Last Result
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.8%  
6 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
7 0.9% 98%  
8 1.2% 98%  
9 4% 96%  
10 71% 92% Median
11 13% 21%  
12 6% 8%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
6 15% 98.8%  
7 10% 84%  
8 29% 74% Median
9 16% 46%  
10 22% 30%  
11 4% 8%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.2% 1.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 14%  
2 4% 8%  
3 2% 4%  
4 0.9% 2%  
5 0.4% 1.1%  
6 0.3% 0.7%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 71 98.5% 69–76 67–78 66–79 63–80
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 98% 68–75 67–77 65–78 63–79
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 61 16% 59–66 57–68 55–68 53–70
Scottish National Party 63 61 13% 59–65 57–68 55–68 53–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 58 1.5% 53–60 51–62 50–63 49–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 45–52 44–54 43–55 41–56
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 39 0% 35–43 34–44 34–44 33–46
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 36 0% 33–40 32–41 31–42 29–44
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 29 0% 25–33 24–33 24–34 23–35

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 99.4%  
65 0.9% 98.5% Majority
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 10% 91% Last Result
70 14% 81%  
71 20% 67% Median
72 15% 47%  
73 10% 32%  
74 5% 23%  
75 5% 17%  
76 4% 12%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 1.1% 98% Majority
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 11% 90% Last Result
70 15% 79%  
71 21% 64% Median
72 16% 43%  
73 9% 28%  
74 5% 19%  
75 5% 14%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.9% 100%  
54 0.7% 99.0%  
55 0.9% 98%  
56 1.1% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 11% 91%  
60 18% 80%  
61 19% 62% Median
62 13% 43%  
63 8% 29% Last Result
64 5% 21%  
65 5% 16% Majority
66 4% 11%  
67 1.3% 8%  
68 4% 6%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 1.1% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 98.8%  
55 1.1% 98%  
56 1.0% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 12% 90%  
60 20% 78%  
61 21% 58% Median
62 13% 38%  
63 7% 25% Last Result
64 4% 17%  
65 4% 13% Majority
66 3% 9%  
67 1.3% 7%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.1% 1.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 2% 97%  
52 3% 95%  
53 4% 92%  
54 5% 88%  
55 5% 83%  
56 10% 77%  
57 15% 68% Median
58 20% 53%  
59 14% 33%  
60 10% 19% Last Result
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.9% 1.5% Majority
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 99.0%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 5% 92%  
46 7% 88%  
47 9% 81%  
48 15% 72%  
49 15% 56% Median
50 17% 41%  
51 9% 24%  
52 5% 15%  
53 4% 10%  
54 3% 6%  
55 1.2% 3% Last Result
56 0.9% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.6%  
34 3% 98%  
35 5% 95% Last Result
36 7% 90%  
37 8% 83%  
38 10% 75%  
39 15% 65% Median
40 11% 50%  
41 10% 39%  
42 13% 29%  
43 9% 16%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.4%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 6% 93%  
34 12% 87%  
35 15% 75%  
36 14% 60% Last Result, Median
37 11% 45%  
38 12% 34%  
39 6% 22%  
40 9% 17%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.8% 1.2%  
45 0.4% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 3% 98%  
25 5% 94%  
26 7% 89%  
27 8% 82%  
28 10% 74%  
29 16% 64% Last Result, Median
30 13% 49%  
31 10% 36%  
32 13% 26%  
33 8% 12%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations