Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 28–30 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 39.0% 37.1–40.9% 36.6–41.4% 36.1–41.9% 35.2–42.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.6–24.5% 18.9–25.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Alba Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
All For Unity 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 64 61–67 60–68 60–69 58–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 29 26–32 25–33 25–33 23–34
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–22 17–23 17–24 16–25
Scottish Greens 6 10 7–10 6–10 5–11 4–12
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–9 5–10 5–11
Alba Party 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–6
All For Unity 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 1.0% 99.5%  
60 5% 98%  
61 11% 94%  
62 12% 83%  
63 15% 71% Last Result
64 17% 57% Median
65 23% 39% Majority
66 5% 16%  
67 5% 11%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 1.3% 99.3%  
25 5% 98%  
26 12% 93%  
27 13% 80%  
28 11% 67%  
29 9% 56% Median
30 11% 47%  
31 15% 36% Last Result
32 12% 21%  
33 8% 9%  
34 0.6% 1.0%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.9%  
17 23% 98.7%  
18 22% 76%  
19 8% 54% Median
20 11% 46%  
21 16% 35%  
22 10% 19%  
23 4% 9%  
24 3% 5% Last Result
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.9% 99.9%  
5 3% 98.9%  
6 5% 96% Last Result
7 3% 91%  
8 3% 89%  
9 5% 86%  
10 77% 80% Median
11 2% 4%  
12 0.8% 1.1%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 11% 99.7% Last Result
6 39% 89% Median
7 15% 50%  
8 26% 34%  
9 5% 8%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 21%  
2 5% 10%  
3 2% 5%  
4 1.3% 3%  
5 0.5% 2%  
6 0.7% 1.0%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

All For Unity

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the All For Unity page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 74 99.9% 70–77 69–78 68–79 66–81
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 73 99.9% 70–76 69–78 67–78 66–80
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 64 45% 61–68 60–69 60–70 59–71
Scottish National Party 63 64 39% 61–67 60–68 60–69 58–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 55 0.1% 52–59 51–60 50–61 48–63
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 45–52 44–53 43–54 42–56
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 30–43
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–40 30–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 26 0% 23–30 23–31 22–32 22–33

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Majority
66 0.7% 99.8%  
67 1.3% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96% Last Result
70 5% 94%  
71 10% 88%  
72 10% 78%  
73 13% 68%  
74 16% 55% Median
75 19% 39%  
76 7% 20%  
77 5% 13%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Majority
66 0.8% 99.8%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95% Last Result
70 6% 92%  
71 11% 86%  
72 11% 75%  
73 14% 64%  
74 15% 50% Median
75 21% 35%  
76 4% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.7% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.9% 99.6%  
60 4% 98.6%  
61 9% 94%  
62 10% 85%  
63 13% 75% Last Result
64 17% 62% Median
65 21% 45% Majority
66 8% 24%  
67 6% 16%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 1.0% 99.5%  
60 5% 98%  
61 11% 94%  
62 12% 83%  
63 15% 71% Last Result
64 17% 57% Median
65 23% 39% Majority
66 5% 16%  
67 5% 11%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.4% 99.4%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 5% 92%  
53 7% 87%  
54 19% 80% Median
55 16% 61%  
56 13% 45%  
57 10% 32%  
58 10% 22%  
59 5% 12%  
60 3% 6% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.7% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.6%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 4% 96%  
45 5% 92%  
46 11% 87%  
47 10% 76%  
48 15% 66% Median
49 19% 51%  
50 9% 32%  
51 8% 23%  
52 7% 15%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 2% Last Result
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 1.1% 99.3%  
32 5% 98%  
33 12% 93%  
34 16% 81%  
35 15% 65% Last Result, Median
36 14% 50%  
37 13% 36%  
38 10% 24%  
39 7% 14%  
40 3% 7%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 3% 98.9%  
32 4% 96%  
33 9% 91%  
34 14% 82%  
35 13% 68% Median
36 11% 55% Last Result
37 16% 44%  
38 10% 28%  
39 10% 18%  
40 7% 8%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 4% 99.9%  
23 9% 96%  
24 15% 87%  
25 15% 72% Median
26 13% 57%  
27 12% 44%  
28 13% 32%  
29 8% 19% Last Result
30 6% 11%  
31 3% 5%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.7% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations