Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 28–30 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Scottish National Party |
41.7% |
39.0% |
37.1–40.9% |
36.6–41.4% |
36.1–41.9% |
35.2–42.8% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party |
22.9% |
22.0% |
20.4–23.7% |
20.0–24.1% |
19.6–24.5% |
18.9–25.4% |
Scottish Labour |
19.1% |
16.0% |
14.6–17.5% |
14.2–17.9% |
13.9–18.3% |
13.3–19.0% |
Scottish Greens |
6.6% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.2% |
6.8–9.5% |
6.6–9.8% |
6.1–10.4% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats |
5.2% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.1% |
5.9–8.4% |
5.7–8.7% |
5.2–9.3% |
Alba Party |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.7–5.8% |
All For Unity |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
60 |
5% |
98% |
|
61 |
11% |
94% |
|
62 |
12% |
83% |
|
63 |
15% |
71% |
Last Result |
64 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
65 |
23% |
39% |
Majority |
66 |
5% |
16% |
|
67 |
5% |
11% |
|
68 |
3% |
6% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
5% |
98% |
|
26 |
12% |
93% |
|
27 |
13% |
80% |
|
28 |
11% |
67% |
|
29 |
9% |
56% |
Median |
30 |
11% |
47% |
|
31 |
15% |
36% |
Last Result |
32 |
12% |
21% |
|
33 |
8% |
9% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
23% |
98.7% |
|
18 |
22% |
76% |
|
19 |
8% |
54% |
Median |
20 |
11% |
46% |
|
21 |
16% |
35% |
|
22 |
10% |
19% |
|
23 |
4% |
9% |
|
24 |
3% |
5% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
6 |
5% |
96% |
Last Result |
7 |
3% |
91% |
|
8 |
3% |
89% |
|
9 |
5% |
86% |
|
10 |
77% |
80% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
4% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
11% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
6 |
39% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
15% |
50% |
|
8 |
26% |
34% |
|
9 |
5% |
8% |
|
10 |
3% |
4% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
79% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
10% |
21% |
|
2 |
5% |
10% |
|
3 |
2% |
5% |
|
4 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
All For Unity
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the All For Unity page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party |
69 |
74 |
99.9% |
70–77 |
69–78 |
68–79 |
66–81 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens |
69 |
73 |
99.9% |
70–76 |
69–78 |
67–78 |
66–80 |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party |
63 |
64 |
45% |
61–68 |
60–69 |
60–70 |
59–71 |
Scottish National Party |
63 |
64 |
39% |
61–67 |
60–68 |
60–69 |
58–70 |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
60 |
55 |
0.1% |
52–59 |
51–60 |
50–61 |
48–63 |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour |
55 |
49 |
0% |
45–52 |
44–53 |
43–54 |
42–56 |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
35 |
36 |
0% |
33–39 |
32–40 |
32–41 |
30–43 |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
36 |
36 |
0% |
33–39 |
32–40 |
31–40 |
30–41 |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
29 |
26 |
0% |
23–30 |
23–31 |
22–32 |
22–33 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
64 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Majority |
66 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
67 |
1.3% |
99.2% |
|
68 |
2% |
98% |
|
69 |
3% |
96% |
Last Result |
70 |
5% |
94% |
|
71 |
10% |
88% |
|
72 |
10% |
78% |
|
73 |
13% |
68% |
|
74 |
16% |
55% |
Median |
75 |
19% |
39% |
|
76 |
7% |
20% |
|
77 |
5% |
13% |
|
78 |
4% |
8% |
|
79 |
2% |
4% |
|
80 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
81 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
64 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Majority |
66 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
67 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
68 |
2% |
97% |
|
69 |
4% |
95% |
Last Result |
70 |
6% |
92% |
|
71 |
11% |
86% |
|
72 |
11% |
75% |
|
73 |
14% |
64% |
|
74 |
15% |
50% |
Median |
75 |
21% |
35% |
|
76 |
4% |
14% |
|
77 |
4% |
9% |
|
78 |
3% |
5% |
|
79 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party – Alba Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
60 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
61 |
9% |
94% |
|
62 |
10% |
85% |
|
63 |
13% |
75% |
Last Result |
64 |
17% |
62% |
Median |
65 |
21% |
45% |
Majority |
66 |
8% |
24% |
|
67 |
6% |
16% |
|
68 |
5% |
11% |
|
69 |
3% |
6% |
|
70 |
2% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
59 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
60 |
5% |
98% |
|
61 |
11% |
94% |
|
62 |
12% |
83% |
|
63 |
15% |
71% |
Last Result |
64 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
65 |
23% |
39% |
Majority |
66 |
5% |
16% |
|
67 |
5% |
11% |
|
68 |
3% |
6% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
2% |
98% |
|
51 |
4% |
96% |
|
52 |
5% |
92% |
|
53 |
7% |
87% |
|
54 |
19% |
80% |
Median |
55 |
16% |
61% |
|
56 |
13% |
45% |
|
57 |
10% |
32% |
|
58 |
10% |
22% |
|
59 |
5% |
12% |
|
60 |
3% |
6% |
Last Result |
61 |
2% |
4% |
|
62 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
43 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
44 |
4% |
96% |
|
45 |
5% |
92% |
|
46 |
11% |
87% |
|
47 |
10% |
76% |
|
48 |
15% |
66% |
Median |
49 |
19% |
51% |
|
50 |
9% |
32% |
|
51 |
8% |
23% |
|
52 |
7% |
15% |
|
53 |
4% |
8% |
|
54 |
2% |
4% |
|
55 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
99.3% |
|
32 |
5% |
98% |
|
33 |
12% |
93% |
|
34 |
16% |
81% |
|
35 |
15% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
36 |
14% |
50% |
|
37 |
13% |
36% |
|
38 |
10% |
24% |
|
39 |
7% |
14% |
|
40 |
3% |
7% |
|
41 |
2% |
4% |
|
42 |
2% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
32 |
4% |
96% |
|
33 |
9% |
91% |
|
34 |
14% |
82% |
|
35 |
13% |
68% |
Median |
36 |
11% |
55% |
Last Result |
37 |
16% |
44% |
|
38 |
10% |
28% |
|
39 |
10% |
18% |
|
40 |
7% |
8% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
9% |
96% |
|
24 |
15% |
87% |
|
25 |
15% |
72% |
Median |
26 |
13% |
57% |
|
27 |
12% |
44% |
|
28 |
13% |
32% |
|
29 |
8% |
19% |
Last Result |
30 |
6% |
11% |
|
31 |
3% |
5% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
|
33 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Panelbase
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1096
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%