Opinion Poll by Opinium for Sky News, 3 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 41.0% 39.0–43.0% 38.5–43.6% 38.0–44.0% 37.1–45.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.0% 21.3–24.7% 20.9–25.2% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Alba Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 65 61–68 61–69 60–70 59–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 30 26–33 25–33 25–33 24–35
Scottish Labour 24 21 17–24 17–24 17–25 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 6–10 5–10 5–11 4–12
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 4–7 4–8 2–8
Alba Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 4% 99.2%  
61 6% 95%  
62 8% 89%  
63 16% 81% Last Result
64 14% 65%  
65 27% 51% Median, Majority
66 7% 24%  
67 7% 17%  
68 3% 10%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.5%  
25 5% 98%  
26 7% 94%  
27 9% 87%  
28 7% 78%  
29 8% 71%  
30 15% 63% Median
31 14% 48% Last Result
32 24% 34%  
33 8% 10%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 19% 99.9%  
18 9% 80%  
19 11% 71%  
20 7% 60%  
21 16% 53% Median
22 17% 37%  
23 7% 20%  
24 8% 12% Last Result
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 1.0%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 1.5% 99.7%  
5 7% 98%  
6 7% 92% Last Result
7 6% 84%  
8 4% 78%  
9 8% 74%  
10 63% 66% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.5%  
4 6% 98.7%  
5 57% 93% Last Result, Median
6 29% 36%  
7 4% 7%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.4%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 74 99.9% 70–77 69–79 68–79 66–81
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 74 99.9% 70–77 69–79 68–79 66–81
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 65 51% 61–68 61–69 60–70 59–71
Scottish National Party 63 65 51% 61–68 61–69 60–70 59–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 55 0.1% 52–59 50–60 50–61 48–63
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 50 0% 46–54 45–55 44–56 43–57
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 34 0% 32–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 36 0% 32–38 31–39 30–39 28–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 26 0% 22–29 22–30 22–30 21–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Majority
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.4%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 95% Last Result
70 9% 90%  
71 7% 81%  
72 9% 74%  
73 13% 65%  
74 13% 53%  
75 23% 40% Median
76 5% 17%  
77 5% 12%  
78 2% 7%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Majority
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 95% Last Result
70 9% 90%  
71 7% 81%  
72 9% 74%  
73 13% 65%  
74 13% 52%  
75 23% 40% Median
76 5% 17%  
77 5% 12%  
78 2% 7%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 4% 99.2%  
61 6% 95%  
62 8% 89%  
63 16% 81% Last Result
64 14% 65%  
65 27% 51% Median, Majority
66 7% 24%  
67 7% 17%  
68 3% 10%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 4% 99.2%  
61 6% 95%  
62 8% 89%  
63 16% 81% Last Result
64 14% 65%  
65 27% 51% Median, Majority
66 7% 24%  
67 7% 17%  
68 3% 10%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 1.4% 99.1%  
50 3% 98%  
51 2% 95%  
52 5% 93%  
53 5% 88%  
54 23% 83%  
55 13% 60%  
56 13% 47% Median
57 9% 35%  
58 7% 26%  
59 9% 19%  
60 5% 10% Last Result
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.8% 100%  
44 3% 99.1%  
45 2% 96%  
46 4% 94%  
47 3% 89%  
48 9% 86%  
49 24% 78%  
50 11% 54%  
51 12% 44% Median
52 10% 31%  
53 6% 22%  
54 7% 16%  
55 5% 8% Last Result
56 2% 3%  
57 1.1% 1.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 18% 97%  
33 16% 79%  
34 15% 63%  
35 12% 48% Last Result
36 13% 37% Median
37 10% 23%  
38 6% 14%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 1.3% 99.3%  
30 2% 98%  
31 5% 96%  
32 6% 91%  
33 10% 85%  
34 9% 74%  
35 14% 65% Median
36 13% 52% Last Result
37 23% 39%  
38 9% 15%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.5% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.8%  
22 14% 98.9%  
23 10% 85%  
24 10% 75%  
25 9% 65%  
26 13% 55% Median
27 15% 42%  
28 11% 28%  
29 10% 17% Last Result
30 5% 7%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations