Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, 30 April–4 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–38.0% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Alba Party | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 57 | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–61 | 48–63 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–30 | 19–32 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Alba Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 96% | |
| 53 | 8% | 93% | |
| 54 | 13% | 84% | |
| 55 | 10% | 71% | |
| 56 | 9% | 61% | |
| 57 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 58 | 5% | 45% | |
| 59 | 19% | 40% | |
| 60 | 15% | 21% | |
| 61 | 5% | 7% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 4% | 95% | |
| 28 | 8% | 92% | |
| 29 | 15% | 84% | |
| 30 | 13% | 69% | |
| 31 | 9% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 8% | 47% | |
| 33 | 24% | 39% | |
| 34 | 9% | 15% | |
| 35 | 4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98% | |
| 23 | 8% | 95% | |
| 24 | 15% | 87% | Last Result |
| 25 | 32% | 72% | Median |
| 26 | 23% | 39% | |
| 27 | 9% | 16% | |
| 28 | 2% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 9 | 8% | 94% | |
| 10 | 58% | 87% | Median |
| 11 | 15% | 29% | |
| 12 | 11% | 14% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 41% | 98% | Last Result |
| 6 | 45% | 57% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 12% | |
| 8 | 4% | 7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party | 69 | 67 | 76% | 63–71 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 59–73 |
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 67 | 76% | 63–71 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 59–73 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 62 | 24% | 58–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–70 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 56 | 0.3% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 49–64 |
| Scottish National Party – Alba Party | 63 | 57 | 0.1% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–61 | 48–63 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 57 | 0.1% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–61 | 48–63 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 41 | 0% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–47 | 35–49 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 37 | 0% | 33–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 31–43 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 8% | 93% | |
| 64 | 8% | 84% | |
| 65 | 11% | 76% | Majority |
| 66 | 11% | 66% | |
| 67 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 68 | 5% | 46% | |
| 69 | 16% | 41% | Last Result |
| 70 | 15% | 25% | |
| 71 | 7% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 8% | 93% | |
| 64 | 8% | 84% | |
| 65 | 11% | 76% | Majority |
| 66 | 11% | 66% | |
| 67 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 68 | 5% | 46% | |
| 69 | 16% | 41% | Last Result |
| 70 | 15% | 25% | |
| 71 | 7% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 7% | 97% | |
| 59 | 15% | 89% | |
| 60 | 16% | 75% | Last Result |
| 61 | 5% | 59% | |
| 62 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 63 | 11% | 45% | |
| 64 | 11% | 34% | |
| 65 | 8% | 24% | Majority |
| 66 | 8% | 16% | |
| 67 | 4% | 7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 5% | 96% | |
| 53 | 9% | 91% | |
| 54 | 17% | 82% | |
| 55 | 10% | 65% | Last Result |
| 56 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 57 | 10% | 47% | |
| 58 | 11% | 37% | |
| 59 | 11% | 27% | |
| 60 | 9% | 16% | |
| 61 | 4% | 6% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 96% | |
| 53 | 8% | 93% | |
| 54 | 13% | 84% | |
| 55 | 10% | 71% | |
| 56 | 9% | 61% | |
| 57 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 58 | 5% | 45% | |
| 59 | 19% | 40% | |
| 60 | 15% | 21% | |
| 61 | 5% | 7% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 96% | |
| 53 | 8% | 93% | |
| 54 | 13% | 84% | |
| 55 | 10% | 71% | |
| 56 | 9% | 61% | |
| 57 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 58 | 5% | 45% | |
| 59 | 19% | 40% | |
| 60 | 15% | 21% | |
| 61 | 5% | 7% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 9% | 93% | |
| 40 | 19% | 83% | |
| 41 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 42 | 20% | 42% | |
| 43 | 11% | 22% | |
| 44 | 4% | 11% | |
| 45 | 3% | 7% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 6% | 96% | |
| 34 | 9% | 90% | |
| 35 | 21% | 81% | |
| 36 | 7% | 60% | Last Result |
| 37 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 45% | |
| 39 | 15% | 32% | |
| 40 | 9% | 16% | |
| 41 | 5% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 97% | |
| 29 | 11% | 93% | Last Result |
| 30 | 25% | 82% | |
| 31 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 33% | |
| 33 | 10% | 18% | |
| 34 | 3% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 6% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Savanta ComRes
- Commissioner(s): The Scotsman
- Fieldwork period: 30 April–4 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.76%