Opinion Poll by Survation for The Courier, 4 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.0% 34.1–38.0% 33.6–38.5% 33.1–39.0% 32.2–40.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.0% 19.4–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Alba Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 60 57–63 56–66 54–67 52–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 26 24–29 23–30 21–31 21–33
Scottish Labour 24 24 22–26 21–27 20–28 18–31
Scottish Greens 6 11 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–9 5–10 5–10 4–11
Alba Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.3%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 1.4% 97%  
56 2% 95%  
57 4% 94%  
58 7% 90%  
59 20% 83%  
60 33% 63% Median
61 11% 30%  
62 5% 19%  
63 5% 14% Last Result
64 3% 10%  
65 1.4% 7% Majority
66 1.5% 5%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 2% 97%  
23 4% 96%  
24 12% 92%  
25 18% 80%  
26 16% 62% Median
27 17% 46%  
28 12% 29%  
29 9% 18%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 4% Last Result
32 0.8% 2%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 1.3% 99.4%  
20 1.1% 98%  
21 3% 97%  
22 5% 94%  
23 16% 89%  
24 23% 72% Last Result, Median
25 28% 49%  
26 14% 22%  
27 4% 8%  
28 2% 4%  
29 0.9% 2%  
30 0.5% 1.0%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.9%  
9 0.7% 99.7%  
10 41% 99.0%  
11 20% 58% Median
12 26% 38%  
13 9% 12%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.9% 99.9%  
5 13% 98.9% Last Result
6 32% 86%  
7 9% 54% Median
8 30% 45%  
9 9% 15%  
10 5% 6%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 71 98% 68–74 67–77 66–78 63–79
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 98% 68–74 67–77 66–78 63–79
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 60 7% 57–63 56–66 54–67 52–69
Scottish National Party 63 60 7% 57–63 56–66 54–67 52–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 58 2% 55–61 52–62 51–63 50–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 51 0% 48–54 46–55 45–57 43–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 40–45 39–46 37–47 35–49
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 34 0% 30–36 29–37 28–39 27–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 31 0% 29–34 28–35 27–36 25–38

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.7% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98% Majority
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 11% 90% Last Result
70 17% 78%  
71 20% 62% Median
72 17% 42%  
73 10% 25%  
74 6% 15%  
75 3% 9%  
76 1.4% 7%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.8% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98% Majority
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 11% 90% Last Result
70 17% 78%  
71 20% 62% Median
72 17% 42%  
73 10% 25%  
74 6% 15%  
75 3% 9%  
76 1.4% 7%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.3%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 1.4% 97%  
56 2% 95%  
57 4% 94%  
58 7% 90%  
59 19% 83%  
60 33% 63% Median
61 11% 30%  
62 5% 19%  
63 5% 14% Last Result
64 3% 10%  
65 1.4% 7% Majority
66 1.5% 5%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.3%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 1.4% 97%  
56 2% 95%  
57 4% 94%  
58 7% 90%  
59 20% 83%  
60 33% 63% Median
61 11% 30%  
62 5% 19%  
63 5% 14% Last Result
64 3% 10%  
65 1.4% 7% Majority
66 1.5% 5%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 1.3% 99.5%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 1.4% 95%  
54 3% 93%  
55 6% 91%  
56 10% 85%  
57 17% 75% Median
58 20% 58%  
59 17% 38%  
60 11% 22% Last Result
61 4% 10%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.7% 2% Majority
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 1.5% 99.5%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 8% 90%  
49 15% 82%  
50 16% 67% Median
51 13% 52%  
52 13% 39%  
53 11% 25%  
54 7% 14%  
55 3% 7% Last Result
56 1.3% 4%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.6% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 1.4% 98.6%  
38 1.4% 97%  
39 5% 96%  
40 9% 91%  
41 13% 82%  
42 18% 69% Median
43 15% 51%  
44 18% 36%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.7% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 1.1% 98%  
29 3% 97%  
30 5% 94%  
31 7% 89%  
32 13% 83%  
33 19% 70% Median
34 21% 51%  
35 16% 30%  
36 7% 14% Last Result
37 3% 7%  
38 2% 5%  
39 1.4% 3%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.6%  
26 1.0% 98.7%  
27 2% 98%  
28 3% 96%  
29 10% 93% Last Result
30 17% 83%  
31 17% 66% Median
32 17% 49%  
33 16% 32%  
34 9% 16%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations