Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Denník N, 26 June–1 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.8–28.8%
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 13.5% 12.2–14.9% 11.8–15.3% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.3%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.2%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 3–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100% Last Result
5 91% 92% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 91% 98.9% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 45% 100%  
3 55% 55% Median
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.8% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 96% 96% Last Result, Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 38% 38%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 8% 8% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 4–5 3–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 91% 98.9% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.8% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations