SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 24.1% (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 21.3% | 18.8–23.3% | 18.2–23.8% | 17.7–24.2% | 16.8–25.1% |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
21.9% | 20.3–23.6% | 19.9–24.1% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.4% |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.3–21.4% | 16.9–21.8% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
21.9% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.5% |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.1–24.8% |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.9% |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 23.3% | 21.7–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.8% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.7–25.1% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.5–26.4% |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.2% | 22.1–29.1% |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.3–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 22.4% | 20.8–24.1% | 20.3–24.6% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–25.9% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.5% | 21.8–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.2% | 20.2–27.1% |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.0% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.3% |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 22.5% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.4–24.7% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.2–26.0% |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
25.2% | 23.5–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–27.9% | 21.8–28.8% |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
24.2% | 22.5–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.7–26.9% | 20.9–27.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 5% | 98% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 11% | 93% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 16% | 82% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 22% | 43% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 14% | 21% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 24.5–25.5% | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
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| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 86% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |