SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 24.1% (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.4% | 15.7–19.3% | 15.2–19.8% | 14.8–20.2% | 14.1–21.1% |
| 28 November–2 December 2025 | NMS | 18.3% | 16.8–19.9% | 16.4–20.4% | 16.0–20.8% | 15.3–21.6% |
| 24–28 November 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
17.8% | 16.3–19.4% | 15.9–19.9% | 15.5–20.3% | 14.9–21.0% |
| 11–18 November 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
16.5% | 15.0–18.0% | 14.6–18.5% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.6–19.6% |
| 11–18 November 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.2–19.2% | 14.9–19.6% | 14.2–20.4% |
| 5–9 November 2025 | NMS | 16.3% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.3% | 14.1–18.7% | 13.5–19.5% |
| 13–21 October 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–20 October 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–17 October 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–5 October 2025 | NMS | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–22 September 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 September 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–7 September 2025 | NMS | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 August 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–19 August 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–11 August 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–10 August 2025 | NMS | 17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–15 July 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–13 July 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–7 July 2025 | NMS | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 June 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–19 June 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–9 June 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–8 June 2025 | NMS | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–26 May 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 May 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–16 May 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 April–4 May 2025 | NMS | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 April 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
20.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–8 April 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 April 2025 | NMS | 19.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–19 March 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–14 March 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 March 2025 | NMS TV Markíza |
21.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–12 February 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–12 February 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 February 2025 | NMS | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–31 January 2025 | CSV | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–24 January 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 January 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–13 January 2025 | NMS | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 December 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 December 2024 | NMS | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–8 December 2024 | Focus 360tka |
20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–20 November 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
21.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 23.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
25.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 23.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 25.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
24.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 7% | 98.6% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 18% | 92% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 27% | 74% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 26% | 47% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 15% | 22% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 99.4% | Median |
| 4 | 15% | 15% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |