SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 24.1% (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.9% | 16.2–19.6% | 15.8–20.1% | 15.4–20.5% | 14.6–21.4% |
| 13–21 October 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| 15–20 October 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
18.5% | 17.0–20.2% | 16.6–20.6% | 16.3–21.0% | 15.6–21.8% |
| 8–17 October 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| 1–5 October 2025 | NMS | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 14.9–21.2% |
| 8–22 September 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| 17–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
18.4% | 17.0–20.0% | 16.6–20.5% | 16.2–20.9% | 15.5–21.7% |
| 10–17 September 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
18.2% | 16.8–19.8% | 16.4–20.3% | 16.0–20.7% | 15.4–21.4% |
| 3–7 September 2025 | NMS | 20.1% | 18.5–21.8% | 18.1–22.2% | 17.7–22.7% | 17.0–23.5% |
| 15–19 August 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
20.0% | 18.5–21.6% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.7–22.5% | 17.0–23.3% |
| 6–19 August 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
18.7% | 17.8–19.6% | 17.6–19.9% | 17.4–20.1% | 17.0–20.6% |
| 5–11 August 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| 6–10 August 2025 | NMS | 17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| 8–15 July 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.4–22.8% |
| 7–13 July 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
19.6% | 18.1–21.2% | 17.6–21.7% | 17.3–22.1% | 16.6–22.9% |
| 2–7 July 2025 | NMS | 18.1% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.2–20.2% | 15.9–20.6% | 15.2–21.4% |
| 16–19 June 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.7–21.9% | 17.4–22.3% | 16.7–23.1% |
| 11–19 June 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
19.3% | 17.8–21.0% | 17.3–21.5% | 17.0–21.9% | 16.3–22.7% |
| 2–9 June 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–8 June 2025 | NMS | 19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.9–22.0% | 17.5–22.4% | 16.8–23.3% |
| 19–26 May 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 12–18 May 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–16 May 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
19.6% | 18.1–21.3% | 17.7–21.8% | 17.3–22.2% | 16.6–23.0% |
| 30 April–4 May 2025 | NMS | 20.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.4–24.0% |
| 10–17 April 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–24.0% |
| 1–8 April 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 April 2025 | NMS | 19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 17.9–22.1% | 17.5–22.5% | 16.8–23.3% |
| 11–19 March 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| 10–14 March 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
22.1% | 20.5–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.7–24.7% | 18.9–25.6% |
| 5–9 March 2025 | NMS TV Markíza |
21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.3–23.6% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.2–24.9% |
| 7–12 February 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
21.7% | 20.1–23.4% | 19.6–23.9% | 19.3–24.3% | 18.5–25.2% |
| 5–12 February 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.6% |
| 5–9 February 2025 | NMS | 22.5% | 20.9–24.2% | 20.4–24.7% | 20.0–25.2% | 19.2–26.0% |
| 27–31 January 2025 | CSV | 22.7% | 21.1–24.4% | 20.7–24.8% | 20.3–25.3% | 19.6–26.1% |
| 14–24 January 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.5% | 20.9–24.3% | 20.4–24.8% | 20.0–25.2% | 19.3–26.1% |
| 11–17 January 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.9–25.5% |
| 9–13 January 2025 | NMS | 18.4% | 16.9–20.0% | 16.5–20.5% | 16.1–20.9% | 15.4–21.7% |
| 16–19 December 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| 4–9 December 2024 | NMS | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| 2–8 December 2024 | Focus 360tka |
20.8% | 19.3–22.5% | 18.8–23.0% | 18.5–23.4% | 17.7–24.3% |
| 12–20 November 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
21.9% | 20.3–23.6% | 19.9–24.1% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.4% |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
21.9% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.5% |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.1–24.8% |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.9% |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 23.3% | 21.7–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
22.8% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.7–25.1% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.5–26.4% |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.2% | 22.1–29.1% |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.3–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 22.4% | 20.8–24.1% | 20.3–24.6% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–25.9% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.5% | 21.8–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.2% | 20.2–27.1% |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.0% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.3% |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 22.5% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.4–24.7% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.2–26.0% |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
25.2% | 23.5–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–27.9% | 21.8–28.8% |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
23.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
24.2% | 22.5–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.7–26.9% | 20.9–27.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 12% | 97% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 25% | 84% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 29% | 60% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 20% | 31% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 8% | 11% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 13–21 October 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 15–20 October 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 8–17 October 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 1–5 October 2025 | NMS | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 8–22 September 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 17–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 10–17 September 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 3–7 September 2025 | NMS | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 15–19 August 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 6–19 August 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 5–11 August 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 6–10 August 2025 | NMS | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 8–15 July 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 7–13 July 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 2–7 July 2025 | NMS | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 16–19 June 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 11–19 June 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 2–9 June 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
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| 4–8 June 2025 | NMS | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 19–26 May 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 12–18 May 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
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| 12–16 May 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 30 April–4 May 2025 | NMS | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 10–17 April 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 1–8 April 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
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| 2–6 April 2025 | NMS | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 11–19 March 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 10–14 March 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 5–9 March 2025 | NMS TV Markíza |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 7–12 February 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 5–12 February 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 5–9 February 2025 | NMS | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 27–31 January 2025 | CSV | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 14–24 January 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 11–17 January 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–13 January 2025 | NMS | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 16–19 December 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 4–9 December 2024 | NMS | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 2–8 December 2024 | Focus 360tka |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 12–20 November 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
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| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 25% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |