HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 9.4% | 7.9–11.2% | 7.5–11.7% | 7.2–12.2% | 6.6–13.0% |
| 13–21 October 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
9.4% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.8–11.4% | 7.3–12.0% |
| 15–20 October 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
9.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.8–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| 8–17 October 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
10.8% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 1–5 October 2025 | NMS | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| 8–22 September 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 17–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
8.3% | 7.3–9.4% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.3–10.7% |
| 10–17 September 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
9.7% | 8.6–10.9% | 8.3–11.3% | 8.0–11.6% | 7.6–12.2% |
| 3–7 September 2025 | NMS | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.1% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.3–12.1% |
| 15–19 August 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.2–11.7% | 7.7–12.4% |
| 6–19 August 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
10.1% | 9.4–10.8% | 9.2–11.0% | 9.1–11.2% | 8.8–11.6% |
| 5–11 August 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| 6–10 August 2025 | NMS | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| 8–15 July 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
12.4% | 11.1–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% | 10.5–14.6% | 9.9–15.3% |
| 7–13 July 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.9–13.8% | 9.3–14.5% |
| 2–7 July 2025 | NMS | 9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| 16–19 June 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
10.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.5–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| 11–19 June 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| 2–9 June 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–8 June 2025 | NMS | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| 19–26 May 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| 12–18 May 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–16 May 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 30 April–4 May 2025 | NMS | 8.9% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.8–11.5% |
| 10–17 April 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 1–8 April 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 April 2025 | NMS | 8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 11–19 March 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
12.3% | 11.1–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.5% | 9.8–15.2% |
| 10–14 March 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
12.5% | 11.3–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 5–9 March 2025 | NMS TV Markíza |
8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.3% |
| 7–12 February 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.4–14.6% |
| 5–12 February 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 5–9 February 2025 | NMS | 10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.2% |
| 27–31 January 2025 | CSV | 13.7% | 12.4–15.1% | 12.1–15.5% | 11.8–15.8% | 11.2–16.5% |
| 14–24 January 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 11–17 January 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
11.1% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.6–12.8% | 9.3–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 9–13 January 2025 | NMS | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 9.9–13.3% | 9.6–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 16–19 December 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| 4–9 December 2024 | NMS | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| 2–8 December 2024 | Focus 360tka |
13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.0% | 11.2–16.8% |
| 12–20 November 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
14.7% | 13.3–16.2% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.6–17.0% | 12.0–17.8% |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
13.3% | 12.0–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 10.8% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
12.8% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.3–15.7% |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.9–17.4% | 12.3–18.1% |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 12.8% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.2–14.6% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.3–15.7% |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.2% |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.1–14.0% | 9.5–14.7% |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.6–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.7–17.3% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
15.9% | 14.5–17.5% | 14.1–17.9% | 13.8–18.3% | 13.1–19.1% |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
15.5% | 14.1–17.1% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.4–17.9% | 12.7–18.7% |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 11.3% | 10.1–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.4% | 8.9–14.0% |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 13.0% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
13.5% | 12.2–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.5% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.9–17.6% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 19% | 95% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 30% | 75% | Median |
| 9.5–10.5% | 24% | 45% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 14% | 21% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 8 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 13–21 October 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–20 October 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–17 October 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| 1–5 October 2025 | NMS | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–22 September 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| 17–21 September 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 10–17 September 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 3–7 September 2025 | NMS | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–19 August 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 6–19 August 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| 5–11 August 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| 6–10 August 2025 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–15 July 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 7–13 July 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 2–7 July 2025 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 16–19 June 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 11–19 June 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 2–9 June 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
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| 4–8 June 2025 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 19–26 May 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 12–18 May 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
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| 12–16 May 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 30 April–4 May 2025 | NMS | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 10–17 April 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 1–8 April 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
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| 2–6 April 2025 | NMS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 11–19 March 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 10–14 March 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 5–9 March 2025 | NMS TV Markíza |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 7–12 February 2025 | Focus 360tka.sk |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 5–12 February 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 5–9 February 2025 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| 27–31 January 2025 | CSV | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 14–24 January 2025 | AKO TV JOJ |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 11–17 January 2025 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 9–13 January 2025 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 16–19 December 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 4–9 December 2024 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 2–8 December 2024 | Focus 360tka |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 12–20 November 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 6–13 November 2024 | Focus 360tka |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 7–11 November 2024 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| 27 October–1 November 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 8–17 October 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 2–7 October 2024 | NMS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| 17–26 September 2024 | Focus | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 10–16 September 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 6–10 September 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 5–9 September 2024 | NMS | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 8–12 August 2024 | NMS | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| 9–15 July 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 9–14 July 2024 | Focus | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 4–8 July 2024 | NMS | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 26 June–1 July 2024 | Ipsos Denník N |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 11–18 June 2024 | AKO TV JOJ |
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| 5–12 June 2024 | Focus TV Markíza |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 25% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |