Opinion Poll by NMS, 4–8 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.5–24.8% 20.1–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 22.5% 20.8–24.2% 20.4–24.7% 20.0–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.7%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 82% 83% Median
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 26% 99.9% Last Result
5 74% 74% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 78% 78% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98.9% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 71% 76% Median
2 5% 5% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 41% 42% Last Result
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 0–2
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 82% 83% Median
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98.9% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations