Opinion Poll by Focus, 9–14 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 25.7% 24.0–27.5% 23.5–28.0% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.3%
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–24.0% 18.2–24.8%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 11.3% 10.1–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.4% 8.9–14.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–7.9% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.8%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 9% 100% Last Result
5 90% 91% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 86% 98% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 85% 99.9% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 98% 99.5% Median
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 74% 100% Last Result, Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.0% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Median
1 18% 18% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 0–2
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 86% 98% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.0% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations