Opinion Poll by NMS, 8–12 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 23.1% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.6%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 22.4% 20.8–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–25.9%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.7–17.3%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.2–8.0%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.9%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.9%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1 0–1
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 93% 99.9% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 88% 99.7% Last Result, Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 88% 88% Median
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 28% 99.9%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 98.6% 98.9% Median
2 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 95% 96% Last Result, Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 93% 99.9% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 28% 99.9%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations