Opinion Poll by NMS, 5–9 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.2% | 21.1–28.1% |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 24.1% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.3–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 13.2% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 4 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 2 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 100% | |
| 5 | 83% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 27% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 67% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 21% | 21% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 77% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 91% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szövetség (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kresťanská únia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 100% | |
| 5 | 83% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–9 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.59%