Opinion Poll by AKO for TV JOJ, 10–16 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 24.1% | 22.8% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.7–25.1% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.5–26.4% |
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0.0% | 22.4% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.3–24.7% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–26.0% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0.0% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.2% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 13.2% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.7% |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Szövetség (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SME RODINA (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kresťanská únia (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 82% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 16% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 24% | 100% | |
| 4 | 52% | 76% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 98% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 96% | 97% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szövetség (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kresťanská únia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresívne Slovensko (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| REPUBLIKA (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Progresívne Slovensko (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 24% | 100% | |
| 4 | 52% | 76% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: AKO
- Commissioner(s): TV JOJ
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.19%