Opinion Poll by Focus, 17–26 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 23.3% 21.7–25.1% 21.2–25.6% 20.8–26.0% 20.0–26.9%
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.8% 18.9–25.6%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 12.8% 11.5–14.2% 11.2–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–5.0%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4 4 4–5 3–5
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 83% 99.6% Last Result, Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 97% 99.4% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 97% 100% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 40% 100%  
2 60% 60% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 96% 96% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 82% 82% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4 4 4–5 3–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 97% 99.4% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 40% 100%  
2 60% 60% Median
3 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE) – SME RODINA (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations