Opinion Poll by NMS, 2–7 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.9%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 70% 100% Median
5 29% 30%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 94% 95% Last Result, Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98% 100% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 80% 100% Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 93% 99.6% Median
2 6% 6% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 93% 94% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 70% 100% Median
5 29% 30%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 80% 100% Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations