Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 1–15 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 13.0% 12.0–14.2% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 11.0–15.3%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 37 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 19 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 19 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
SME RODINA 11 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 13 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–17
Slovenská národná strana 15 10 9–11 9–12 0–12 0–13

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.7%  
34 4% 98%  
35 13% 94%  
36 18% 81%  
37 20% 63% Median
38 16% 43%  
39 16% 27%  
40 8% 11%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.5% 100%  
19 4% 99.5%  
20 13% 95%  
21 24% 82%  
22 25% 58% Median
23 19% 33%  
24 9% 14%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 7% 99.2%  
17 13% 92%  
18 27% 79%  
19 22% 52% Median
20 22% 30%  
21 6% 8% Last Result
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 5% 99.2%  
17 11% 94% Last Result
18 25% 83%  
19 33% 58% Median
20 18% 24%  
21 4% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100% Last Result
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 8% 99.1%  
14 22% 91%  
15 31% 69% Median
16 23% 38%  
17 11% 15%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.9% 100%  
13 7% 99.0%  
14 21% 92%  
15 34% 71% Median
16 21% 37%  
17 12% 15%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 4% 99.7%  
12 11% 96%  
13 43% 85% Median
14 21% 42%  
15 17% 21%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0.9% 96%  
9 24% 95%  
10 41% 71% Median
11 22% 31%  
12 7% 9%  
13 1.2% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 84 99.9% 82–87 81–88 80–88 77–89
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 62 0% 59–65 58–66 57–66 54–68
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 52 0% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 47 0% 44–49 43–50 41–51 38–52
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9% Majority
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 0.5% 99.3%  
79 1.2% 98.8%  
80 2% 98%  
81 5% 96%  
82 16% 91%  
83 15% 75%  
84 19% 60% Median
85 17% 41%  
86 10% 24%  
87 7% 14%  
88 4% 6%  
89 2% 2% Last Result
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.4%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 0.9% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 5% 94%  
60 11% 89%  
61 13% 79%  
62 22% 66% Median
63 16% 44%  
64 15% 28%  
65 8% 13%  
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 5% 97%  
50 10% 92%  
51 16% 82%  
52 19% 66% Median
53 20% 47%  
54 11% 27%  
55 10% 16%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 0.5% 99.2%  
40 1.1% 98.7%  
41 0.9% 98%  
42 0.7% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 5% 94%  
45 10% 89%  
46 16% 79%  
47 18% 63% Median
48 18% 45%  
49 17% 27%  
50 6% 9%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.7%  
34 4% 98%  
35 13% 94%  
36 18% 81%  
37 20% 63% Median
38 16% 43%  
39 16% 27%  
40 8% 11%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations