OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 11.0% (General Election of 5 March 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12.7% 8.7–15.9% 8.3–16.5% 7.9–17.0% 7.3–18.0%
11–13 February 2020 AKO 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
6–12 February 2020 FOCUS 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.7–15.2% 11.4–15.6% 10.8–16.3%
3–6 February 2020 AKO 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
24–31 January 2020 MVK 8.9% 7.9–10.1% 7.6–10.4% 7.4–10.7% 6.9–11.3%
23–30 January 2020 Polis 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.7%
15–22 January 2020 FOCUS 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
15–17 January 2020 AKO 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
10–15 January 2020 Polis 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.5%
10–14 January 2020 FOCUS 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
7–9 January 2020 AKO
TA3		 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
7–11 December 2019 Polis 9.8% 8.8–11.1% 8.5–11.4% 8.2–11.7% 7.7–12.3%
2–9 December 2019 FOCUS 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
19–25 November 2019 AKO 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
9–13 November 2019 Polis 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
30 October–6 November 2019 FOCUS 5.7% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.8%
15–22 October 2019 FOCUS 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
7–10 October 2019 AKO 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
18–25 September 2019 AKO 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
11–17 September 2019 FOCUS 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
26–29 August 2019 AKO 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
12 August 2019 MVK 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
1–7 August 2019 FOCUS 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
19–25 June 2019 FOCUS 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%
11–18 June 2019 Polis 6.3% 5.4–7.3% 5.2–7.6% 5.0–7.8% 4.6–8.3%
1–11 June 2019 FOCUS 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
28–31 May 2019 AKO 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
8–10 May 2019 AKO 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
29 April–6 May 2019 AKO 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
8–14 April 2019 FOCUS 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
1–2 April 2019 AKO 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
1–15 March 2019 FOCUS 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
21–26 February 2019 FOCUS 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
8–12 February 2019 AKO 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
16–23 January 2019 FOCUS 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
1–9 December 2018 FOCUS 10.5% 9.4–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.8–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
27–28 November 2018 AKO 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
13–15 November 2018 AKO 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
7–14 November 2018 FOCUS 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
3–8 October 2018 AKO 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
18–25 September 2018 FOCUS 10.3% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
30 August–5 September 2018 AKO 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
15–17 August 2018 AKO 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
2–9 August 2018 FOCUS 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.3% 7.1–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
18–21 June 2018 AKO 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
4–11 June 2018 FOCUS 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
16–21 May 2018 AKO 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
24–30 April 2018 FOCUS 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
20–24 April 2018 AKO 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
4–7 April 2018 AKO 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
7–13 March 2018 FOCUS 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
21–26 February 2018 AKO 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
23–28 January 2018 FOCUS 11.4% 10.2–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.5% 9.0–14.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 1.0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 7% 99.0%  
8.5–9.5% 11% 92%  
9.5–10.5% 7% 81%  
10.5–11.5% 8% 74% Last Result
11.5–12.5% 14% 66%  
12.5–13.5% 15% 52% Median
13.5–14.5% 13% 37%  
14.5–15.5% 11% 24%  
15.5–16.5% 8% 13%  
16.5–17.5% 4% 5%  
17.5–18.5% 1.0% 1.1%  
18.5–19.5% 0.1% 0.2%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 17 seats (General Election of 5 March 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 23 17–29 16–31 15–31 14–33
11–13 February 2020 AKO 28 25–31 24–32 24–33 21–33
6–12 February 2020 FOCUS 25 23–27 22–29 21–29 20–32
3–6 February 2020 AKO 25 24–25 23–25 22–26 22–29
24–31 January 2020 MVK 17 15–20 14–20 14–21 13–23
23–30 January 2020 Polis 23 20–24 19–25 19–26 17–29
15–22 January 2020 FOCUS 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 12–21
15–17 January 2020 AKO 14 13–17 13–20 13–20 11–21
10–15 January 2020 Polis 18 14–21 14–22 14–22 14–23
10–14 January 2020 FOCUS 15 13–18 12–18 12–18 10–19
7–9 January 2020 AKO
TA3		 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
7–11 December 2019 Polis 17 16–20 14–20 14–21 13–22
2–9 December 2019 FOCUS 16 14–18 12–18 11–18 11–19
19–25 November 2019 AKO 12 12 12–13 12–14 11–16
9–13 November 2019 Polis 13 11–15 11–16 11–17 9–17
30 October–6 November 2019 FOCUS 10 9–12 0–13 0–14 0–14
15–22 October 2019 FOCUS 11 10–12 0–13 0–14 0–15
7–10 October 2019 AKO 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
18–25 September 2019 AKO 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
11–17 September 2019 FOCUS 13 11–14 10–14 9–14 0–15
26–29 August 2019 AKO 13 10–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
12 August 2019 MVK 12 10–14 10–15 10–15 9–17
1–7 August 2019 FOCUS 11 9–13 9–13 0–14 0–14
19–25 June 2019 FOCUS 10 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
11–18 June 2019 Polis 12 9–13 9–14 9–15 0–16
1–11 June 2019 FOCUS 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 0–15
28–31 May 2019 AKO 10 9–12 8–12 0–12 0–14
8–10 May 2019 AKO 11 9–12 9–12 8–13 0–14
29 April–6 May 2019 AKO 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
8–14 April 2019 FOCUS 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
1–2 April 2019 AKO 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 11–17
1–15 March 2019 FOCUS 19 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
21–26 February 2019 FOCUS 15 12–17 12–17 11–17 10–18
8–12 February 2019 AKO 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–20
16–23 January 2019 FOCUS 18 16–20 15–21 14–21 13–22
1–9 December 2018 FOCUS 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 14–24
27–28 November 2018 AKO 12 10–15 10–15 10–16 9–18
13–15 November 2018 AKO 14 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–19
7–14 November 2018 FOCUS 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
3–8 October 2018 AKO 14 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
18–25 September 2018 FOCUS 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 14–25
30 August–5 September 2018 AKO 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
15–17 August 2018 AKO 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–19
2–9 August 2018 FOCUS 15 13–18 13–18 12–19 12–20
18–21 June 2018 AKO 15 12–17 12–17 11–17 11–18
4–11 June 2018 FOCUS 19 15–21 15–21 14–22 13–23
16–21 May 2018 AKO 15 13–18 13–18 12–18 12–20
24–30 April 2018 FOCUS 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
20–24 April 2018 AKO 14 13–15 13–16 12–17 11–18
4–7 April 2018 AKO 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 11–20
7–13 March 2018 FOCUS 18 16–21 15–21 15–21 14–22
21–26 February 2018 AKO 16 15–18 14–19 13–19 13–20
23–28 January 2018 FOCUS 20 17–21 16–22 16–23 15–25

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 2% 98%  
16 5% 96%  
17 5% 90% Last Result
18 4% 86%  
19 7% 82%  
20 4% 76%  
21 2% 72%  
22 3% 70%  
23 19% 67% Median
24 4% 49%  
25 15% 44%  
26 5% 29%  
27 9% 24%  
28 4% 16%  
29 3% 12%  
30 3% 9%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.5% 1.5%  
33 0.8% 1.0%  
34 0% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%