SMER–sociálna demokracia

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 28.3% (General Election of 5 March 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 17.6% 15.8–22.2% 15.3–23.0% 15.0–23.5% 14.3–24.5%
11–13 February 2020 AKO 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.1%
6–12 February 2020 FOCUS 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
3–6 February 2020 AKO 17.3% 15.8–18.9% 15.4–19.4% 15.1–19.8% 14.4–20.6%
24–31 January 2020 MVK 21.9% 20.4–23.5% 20.0–24.0% 19.6–24.4% 18.9–25.2%
23–30 January 2020 Polis 17.1% 15.7–18.7% 15.4–19.1% 15.0–19.5% 14.4–20.2%
15–22 January 2020 FOCUS 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
15–17 January 2020 AKO 17.1% 15.7–18.7% 15.2–19.2% 14.9–19.6% 14.2–20.4%
10–15 January 2020 Polis 17.1% 15.7–18.6% 15.3–19.0% 15.0–19.4% 14.4–20.1%
10–14 January 2020 FOCUS 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.8–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.1%
7–9 January 2020 AKO
TA3		 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
7–11 December 2019 Polis 18.1% 16.7–19.7% 16.3–20.1% 16.0–20.5% 15.3–21.2%
2–9 December 2019 FOCUS 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.7–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.6–23.0%
19–25 November 2019 AKO 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 16.1–20.9% 15.4–21.7%
9–13 November 2019 Polis 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.3% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
30 October–6 November 2019 FOCUS 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
15–22 October 2019 FOCUS 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.9–25.5%
7–10 October 2019 AKO 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
18–25 September 2019 AKO 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
11–17 September 2019 FOCUS 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.7–23.9% 19.3–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
26–29 August 2019 AKO 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
12 August 2019 MVK 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
1–7 August 2019 FOCUS 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.3%
19–25 June 2019 FOCUS 20.3% 18.8–22.0% 18.4–22.5% 18.0–22.9% 17.3–23.7%
11–18 June 2019 Polis 18.3% 16.9–19.8% 16.5–20.2% 16.2–20.6% 15.5–21.4%
1–11 June 2019 FOCUS 19.7% 18.1–21.3% 17.7–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.6–23.0%
28–31 May 2019 AKO 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.8–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.1%
8–10 May 2019 AKO 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
29 April–6 May 2019 AKO 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
8–14 April 2019 FOCUS 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
1–2 April 2019 AKO 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
1–15 March 2019 FOCUS 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
21–26 February 2019 FOCUS 21.2% 19.7–23.0% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.1–24.7%
8–12 February 2019 AKO 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
16–23 January 2019 FOCUS 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.0%
1–9 December 2018 FOCUS 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
27–28 November 2018 AKO 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
13–15 November 2018 AKO 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
7–14 November 2018 FOCUS 20.9% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
3–8 October 2018 AKO 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
18–25 September 2018 FOCUS 22.4% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.0% 19.1–25.9%
30 August–5 September 2018 AKO 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
15–17 August 2018 AKO 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
2–9 August 2018 FOCUS 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.6–22.8% 18.3–23.3% 17.5–24.1%
18–21 June 2018 AKO 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
4–11 June 2018 FOCUS 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
16–21 May 2018 AKO 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
24–30 April 2018 FOCUS 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–23.9%
20–24 April 2018 AKO 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
4–7 April 2018 AKO 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
7–13 March 2018 FOCUS 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.3% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
21–26 February 2018 AKO 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.4%
23–28 January 2018 FOCUS 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12.5–13.5% 0.1% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0.9% 99.9%  
14.5–15.5% 6% 99.0%  
15.5–16.5% 18% 93%  
16.5–17.5% 25% 75%  
17.5–18.5% 18% 51% Median
18.5–19.5% 7% 33%  
19.5–20.5% 4% 26%  
20.5–21.5% 6% 22%  
21.5–22.5% 8% 16%  
22.5–23.5% 5% 8%  
23.5–24.5% 2% 2%  
24.5–25.5% 0.4% 0.5%  
25.5–26.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
26.5–27.5% 0% 0%  
27.5–28.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 49 seats (General Election of 5 March 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 33 28–41 28–43 27–46 25–48
11–13 February 2020 AKO 31 28–34 27–37 25–37 23–37
6–12 February 2020 FOCUS 32 28–36 28–38 28–38 26–39
3–6 February 2020 AKO 34 29–34 29–34 28–35 26–38
24–31 January 2020 MVK 41 37–46 37–46 35–48 34–48
23–30 January 2020 Polis 33 28–34 28–36 26–38 25–38
15–22 January 2020 FOCUS 30 29–36 29–36 28–38 27–40
15–17 January 2020 AKO 30 28–34 28–36 28–37 26–38
10–15 January 2020 Polis 31 26–34 26–37 26–39 25–39
10–14 January 2020 FOCUS 34 31–39 30–39 30–39 28–42
7–9 January 2020 AKO
TA3		 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
7–11 December 2019 Polis 32 28–34 26–38 26–38 25–38
2–9 December 2019 FOCUS 36 34–44 32–44 31–44 30–44
19–25 November 2019 AKO 31 31 31–33 30–35 27–38
9–13 November 2019 Polis 36 34–45 34–45 33–46 32–52
30 October–6 November 2019 FOCUS 38 34–40 33–42 32–43 31–45
15–22 October 2019 FOCUS 41 38–48 37–49 37–49 32–49
7–10 October 2019 AKO 35 31–40 31–40 31–40 31–41
18–25 September 2019 AKO 34 30–37 30–37 30–38 28–41
11–17 September 2019 FOCUS 37 35–41 34–42 33–42 32–46
26–29 August 2019 AKO 33 29–35 28–36 28–36 27–39
12 August 2019 MVK 36 33–40 33–41 32–42 31–44
1–7 August 2019 FOCUS 38 35–41 33–42 32–42 31–45
19–25 June 2019 FOCUS 37 31–39 29–41 29–41 28–44
11–18 June 2019 Polis 32 29–36 28–38 28–38 26–41
1–11 June 2019 FOCUS 34 31–37 30–37 29–38 27–39
28–31 May 2019 AKO 29 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–35
8–10 May 2019 AKO 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 25–36
29 April–6 May 2019 AKO 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 25–36
8–14 April 2019 FOCUS 33 29–36 28–37 28–37 27–39
1–2 April 2019 AKO 31 28–33 28–35 27–35 26–37
1–15 March 2019 FOCUS 37 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
21–26 February 2019 FOCUS 36 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
8–12 February 2019 AKO 36 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
16–23 January 2019 FOCUS 39 35–43 35–44 34–45 33–46
1–9 December 2018 FOCUS 38 34–41 32–44 31–44 31–46
27–28 November 2018 AKO 39 35–43 35–43 33–44 32–47
13–15 November 2018 AKO 39 37–42 35–44 34–44 33–47
7–14 November 2018 FOCUS 36 33–39 31–39 31–41 29–44
3–8 October 2018 AKO 37 35–41 34–42 32–43 31–44
18–25 September 2018 FOCUS 40 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–51
30 August–5 September 2018 AKO 37 31–39 31–39 31–39 30–42
15–17 August 2018 AKO 38 33–38 33–39 33–41 30–43
2–9 August 2018 FOCUS 38 35–40 33–43 33–43 32–45
18–21 June 2018 AKO 36 33–40 32–40 31–40 30–41
4–11 June 2018 FOCUS 38 35–42 35–43 35–44 33–46
16–21 May 2018 AKO 36 33–40 33–42 32–42 31–44
24–30 April 2018 FOCUS 36 33–41 33–41 33–42 31–44
20–24 April 2018 AKO 36 33–38 33–39 32–39 29–41
4–7 April 2018 AKO 34 32–37 31–38 30–40 28–41
7–13 March 2018 FOCUS 34 31–38 30–38 30–39 29–41
21–26 February 2018 AKO 38 37–42 37–42 34–44 34–46
23–28 January 2018 FOCUS 43 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–50

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.7%  
25 0.7% 99.6%  
26 1.0% 98.9%  
27 1.3% 98%  
28 8% 97%  
29 2% 89%  
30 5% 87%  
31 13% 81%  
32 10% 69%  
33 22% 59% Median
34 3% 36%  
35 3% 33%  
36 2% 31%  
37 6% 29%  
38 8% 23%  
39 1.4% 15%  
40 0.8% 14%  
41 5% 13%  
42 2% 8%  
43 2% 6%  
44 0.5% 4%  
45 0.8% 4%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.2% 0.8%  
48 0.6% 0.6%  
49 0% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%