Opinion Poll by Valicon, 4–7 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 20.7% | 18.2% | 17.6–18.9% | 17.4–19.1% | 17.2–19.3% | 16.9–19.6% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 0.0% | 18.2% | 17.6–18.9% | 17.4–19.1% | 17.2–19.3% | 16.9–19.6% |
| Socialni demokrati | 6.0% | 18.0% | 17.3–18.7% | 17.1–18.9% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.7–19.3% |
| Levica | 6.0% | 9.0% | 8.5–9.5% | 8.4–9.6% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.0–10.0% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 34.5% | 7.8% | 7.3–8.3% | 7.2–8.4% | 7.1–8.5% | 6.9–8.8% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1–7.0% | 6.0–7.1% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 10.2% | 5.6% | 5.2–6.1% | 5.1–6.2% | 5.0–6.3% | 4.9–6.5% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4–4.1% | 3.4–4.2% | 3.3–4.3% | 3.1–4.5% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5–3.1% | 2.5–3.2% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.4–3.0% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% |
| Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.4–1.8% | 1.3–1.9% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 21 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–20 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 0 | 18 | 18–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| Socialni demokrati | 6 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
| Levica | 6 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 36 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 5 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 10 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 4 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 12% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 41% | 88% | Median |
| 19 | 46% | 46% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 74% | 94% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 20% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 17 | 20% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 55% | 79% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 24% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 44% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 48% | 55% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 45% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 54% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 80% | 98.8% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 18% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 60% | 98.8% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 39% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 61 | 56 | 100% | 55–57 | 54–57 | 54–58 | 54–58 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 57 | 55 | 100% | 54–56 | 53–57 | 53–57 | 52–57 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 56 | 50 | 100% | 48–50 | 48–51 | 48–52 | 48–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 47 | 50 | 100% | 49–51 | 48–51 | 48–52 | 47–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 52 | 49 | 99.9% | 48–50 | 47–50 | 47–50 | 46–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 21 | 48 | 98% | 47–49 | 46–49 | 46–50 | 45–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 42 | 44 | 0.2% | 43–45 | 42–45 | 42–45 | 41–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 11 | 42 | 0% | 42–43 | 41–44 | 40–44 | 40–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 31 | 42 | 0% | 41–43 | 40–43 | 40–43 | 39–44 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 16 | 42 | 0% | 40–42 | 40–42 | 40–43 | 39–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka | 21 | 37 | 0% | 36–37 | 35–38 | 35–38 | 34–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 6 | 36 | 0% | 35–37 | 35–37 | 34–38 | 34–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 52 | 31 | 0% | 30–32 | 29–32 | 29–32 | 28–32 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 37% | 92% | Median |
| 56 | 41% | 55% | |
| 57 | 12% | 15% | |
| 58 | 3% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 11% | 93% | |
| 55 | 37% | 82% | Median |
| 56 | 39% | 45% | |
| 57 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 48 | 14% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 35% | 85% | Median |
| 50 | 41% | 50% | |
| 51 | 6% | 10% | |
| 52 | 4% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 47 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 48 | 5% | 98% | |
| 49 | 15% | 93% | |
| 50 | 65% | 78% | Median |
| 51 | 8% | 13% | |
| 52 | 5% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 47 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 48 | 18% | 93% | |
| 49 | 35% | 75% | Median |
| 50 | 39% | 40% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 7% | 98% | Majority |
| 47 | 25% | 91% | Median |
| 48 | 54% | 66% | |
| 49 | 10% | 12% | |
| 50 | 3% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 43 | 20% | 91% | |
| 44 | 61% | 71% | Median |
| 45 | 10% | 10% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 7% | 97% | |
| 42 | 55% | 91% | Median |
| 43 | 28% | 36% | |
| 44 | 6% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 41 | 30% | 92% | Median |
| 42 | 30% | 62% | |
| 43 | 31% | 32% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 9% | 98% | |
| 41 | 27% | 89% | Median |
| 42 | 57% | 61% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 7% | 98% | |
| 36 | 39% | 91% | Median |
| 37 | 46% | 52% | |
| 38 | 6% | 7% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 11% | 97% | |
| 36 | 56% | 86% | Median |
| 37 | 27% | 30% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 29 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 30 | 21% | 92% | |
| 31 | 40% | 71% | Median |
| 32 | 31% | 32% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Valicon
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 5426
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.94%