Opinion Poll by Valicon, 8–9 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 20.7% 18.2% 16.5–20.0% 16.1–20.5% 15.7–21.0% 14.9–21.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 0.0% 17.8% 16.2–19.6% 15.7–20.1% 15.3–20.6% 14.6–21.5%
Socialni demokrati 6.0% 15.2% 13.7–17.0% 13.3–17.5% 12.9–17.9% 12.2–18.7%
Levica 6.0% 9.3% 8.1–10.8% 7.8–11.2% 7.5–11.5% 7.0–12.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 5.6% 7.7% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.4% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
Stranka modernega centra 34.5% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 10.2% 5.5% 4.6–6.7% 4.4–7.0% 4.2–7.3% 3.8–7.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 4.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 2.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.2% 1.6–4.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 4.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 21 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–22
Lista Marjana Šarca 0 17 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–22
Socialni demokrati 6 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Levica 6 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 5 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Stranka modernega centra 36 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 10 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 4% 99.5%  
16 9% 95%  
17 22% 87%  
18 36% 64% Median
19 18% 29%  
20 7% 11%  
21 3% 4% Last Result
22 0.8% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.9%  
15 4% 98.9%  
16 16% 95%  
17 36% 79% Median
18 21% 43%  
19 12% 22%  
20 8% 10%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 23% 89%  
15 29% 66% Median
16 19% 38%  
17 16% 19%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100% Last Result
7 5% 99.5%  
8 24% 94%  
9 35% 71% Median
10 26% 35%  
11 8% 10%  
12 1.3% 1.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100% Last Result
6 13% 98.9%  
7 42% 86% Median
8 31% 43%  
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 6% 99.4%  
6 35% 93%  
7 42% 58% Median
8 13% 15%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 19% 98.8%  
5 38% 79% Median
6 34% 41%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0.5% 17%  
4 16% 17% Last Result
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0.5% 22%  
4 20% 21%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.3% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 61 53 100% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 57 52 99.8% 49–55 48–55 48–56 46–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 47 47 75% 44–49 43–50 43–51 41–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 56 45 42% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 21 45 45% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 52 45 31% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 31 41 1.3% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 11 40 0.5% 38–42 37–43 36–44 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 42 40 0.2% 37–41 36–42 36–43 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 16 38 0% 36–41 35–41 34–42 33–43
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 21 35 0% 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 6 33 0% 30–35 30–36 30–36 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 52 27 0% 25–29 24–30 23–31 22–32

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.5%  
49 6% 98%  
50 7% 92%  
51 16% 86% Median
52 16% 70%  
53 22% 55%  
54 13% 33%  
55 10% 19%  
56 5% 10%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.8% Majority
47 1.3% 99.4%  
48 3% 98%  
49 7% 95%  
50 10% 88%  
51 19% 78% Median
52 16% 59%  
53 22% 44%  
54 11% 22%  
55 6% 10%  
56 3% 4%  
57 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 99.5%  
43 6% 98%  
44 6% 92%  
45 12% 86%  
46 14% 75% Median, Majority
47 28% 61% Last Result
48 14% 33%  
49 11% 19%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 1.1%  
53 0.5% 0.5%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 3% 97%  
43 12% 94%  
44 18% 82% Median
45 21% 64%  
46 15% 42% Majority
47 15% 27%  
48 6% 13%  
49 3% 7%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.4% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 4% 97%  
43 12% 93%  
44 15% 80% Median
45 20% 65%  
46 16% 45% Majority
47 16% 30%  
48 8% 14%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 3% 97%  
42 6% 94%  
43 16% 88%  
44 19% 72% Median
45 21% 53%  
46 15% 31% Majority
47 10% 16%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 12% 96%  
39 15% 83%  
40 13% 68% Median
41 23% 55%  
42 10% 32%  
43 13% 22%  
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.3% Majority
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.3%  
37 7% 97%  
38 12% 91%  
39 16% 79% Median
40 21% 62%  
41 18% 42%  
42 14% 23%  
43 5% 9%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 99.5%  
36 6% 98%  
37 10% 93%  
38 14% 83%  
39 16% 69% Median
40 29% 53%  
41 14% 23%  
42 4% 9% Last Result
43 3% 5%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 3% 98.9%  
35 6% 96%  
36 12% 90%  
37 22% 78% Median
38 22% 56%  
39 10% 34%  
40 14% 24%  
41 7% 10%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.1%  
33 11% 96%  
34 20% 85%  
35 22% 65% Median
36 15% 43%  
37 11% 29%  
38 12% 17%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.5% 99.2%  
30 9% 98%  
31 18% 88%  
32 12% 70% Median
33 26% 58%  
34 18% 32%  
35 9% 14%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.6%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 3% 96%  
25 8% 93%  
26 15% 85%  
27 34% 69% Median
28 17% 36%  
29 13% 19%  
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations