Opinion Poll by Valicon, 25–27 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 20.7% 17.2% 15.4–19.3% 14.9–19.9% 14.4–20.4% 13.6–21.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 0.0% 13.8% 12.2–15.8% 11.7–16.3% 11.3–16.8% 10.6–17.7%
Socialni demokrati 6.0% 11.9% 10.3–13.7% 9.9–14.2% 9.5–14.7% 8.9–15.6%
Levica 6.0% 9.8% 8.4–11.5% 8.0–11.9% 7.7–12.4% 7.0–13.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 5.6% 5.7% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.5% 4.1–7.8% 3.7–8.5%
Stranka modernega centra 34.5% 5.5% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.3% 4.0–7.6% 3.5–8.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 2.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.6–7.1% 3.2–7.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 10.2% 4.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.5–6.4% 3.3–6.7% 2.9–7.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 4.4% 3.3% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.0% 1.8–5.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 4.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.4% 1.4–5.0%
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 21 15 14–19 14–19 14–19 13–20
Lista Marjana Šarca 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 10–16
Socialni demokrati 6 12 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–15
Levica 6 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 5 6 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Stranka modernega centra 36 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 0 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 10 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 8% 98%  
15 44% 90% Median
16 20% 46%  
17 11% 26%  
18 4% 15%  
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 10% 97%  
12 25% 87%  
13 43% 62% Median
14 11% 19%  
15 3% 8%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 7% 98%  
10 8% 92%  
11 32% 84%  
12 44% 52% Median
13 6% 7%  
14 0.9% 2%  
15 0.8% 1.0%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 4% 98%  
8 10% 94%  
9 60% 84% Median
10 12% 25%  
11 6% 13%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.1% 98%  
4 20% 98%  
5 17% 78% Last Result
6 52% 61% Median
7 8% 9%  
8 0.8% 1.1%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0.2% 92%  
4 41% 92%  
5 25% 51% Median
6 16% 26%  
7 9% 9%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0.4% 94%  
4 28% 93%  
5 26% 65% Median
6 37% 39%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 0.1% 85%  
4 59% 84% Median
5 20% 26%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 3% 28%  
4 21% 25% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.4% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 61 39 0.3% 35–42 35–43 33–44 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 57 38 0% 33–41 33–42 33–43 29–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 47 35 0% 31–37 29–38 29–39 28–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 56 33 0% 30–37 29–38 29–38 27–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 21 34 0% 30–35 29–37 27–38 24–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 52 33 0% 29–35 27–37 27–38 27–39
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 31 32 0% 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 11 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 21 28 0% 27–31 26–32 25–33 25–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 16 28 0% 24–30 23–32 23–33 21–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 42 29 0% 25–31 23–33 23–33 23–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 6 25 0% 22–26 20–27 20–28 20–29
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 52 20 0% 16–22 15–23 15–24 14–25

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 0.4% 97%  
35 7% 97%  
36 2% 90%  
37 11% 88%  
38 11% 77%  
39 34% 66%  
40 12% 32% Median
41 8% 21%  
42 6% 13%  
43 3% 6%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.7% 100%  
30 0% 99.3%  
31 0.2% 99.2%  
32 1.4% 99.0%  
33 8% 98%  
34 0.8% 90%  
35 11% 89%  
36 4% 78%  
37 11% 74%  
38 14% 63%  
39 32% 49%  
40 6% 17% Median
41 3% 10%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 7% 99.4%  
30 0.8% 92%  
31 6% 92%  
32 5% 85%  
33 15% 80%  
34 8% 65%  
35 41% 57%  
36 4% 16% Median
37 5% 12%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.1% 1.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.8%  
28 0.3% 98%  
29 6% 98%  
30 4% 92%  
31 8% 89%  
32 4% 81%  
33 36% 77%  
34 13% 41% Median
35 9% 27%  
36 3% 19%  
37 8% 16%  
38 6% 8%  
39 0.7% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.7% 100%  
25 0% 99.2%  
26 0.1% 99.2%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 0.7% 97%  
29 6% 96%  
30 6% 90%  
31 8% 84%  
32 9% 76%  
33 12% 67%  
34 16% 55%  
35 29% 39% Median
36 2% 10%  
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 8% 99.7%  
28 2% 92%  
29 8% 90%  
30 7% 83%  
31 7% 75%  
32 4% 68%  
33 38% 64%  
34 11% 26% Median
35 5% 15%  
36 3% 10%  
37 3% 7%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.2% 99.6%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 11% 97%  
31 13% 86% Last Result
32 40% 73% Median
33 13% 33%  
34 6% 20%  
35 4% 14%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 1.5% 99.7%  
25 0.8% 98%  
26 5% 97%  
27 10% 93%  
28 7% 82%  
29 23% 75%  
30 12% 52%  
31 29% 39% Median
32 5% 10%  
33 2% 6%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 7% 97%  
27 6% 90%  
28 47% 84% Median
29 11% 37%  
30 9% 26%  
31 9% 17%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 1.2%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 98.5%  
23 6% 98%  
24 6% 93%  
25 5% 87%  
26 8% 82%  
27 12% 74%  
28 15% 63%  
29 28% 48% Median
30 11% 20%  
31 2% 9%  
32 3% 6%  
33 1.3% 3%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 6% 99.8%  
24 0.6% 94%  
25 5% 93%  
26 3% 88%  
27 8% 85%  
28 4% 77%  
29 48% 73%  
30 9% 25% Median
31 7% 16%  
32 3% 9%  
33 5% 6%  
34 0.4% 0.9%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.5% 100%  
20 5% 99.5%  
21 4% 95%  
22 7% 90%  
23 17% 84%  
24 15% 67%  
25 40% 52% Median
26 5% 12%  
27 5% 8%  
28 0.8% 3%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 7% 99.3%  
16 5% 93%  
17 10% 88%  
18 4% 77%  
19 5% 73%  
20 37% 68%  
21 15% 31% Median
22 7% 16%  
23 4% 9%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.3% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations