Opinion Poll by Valicon, 28–31 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Slovenska demokratska stranka |
20.7% |
17.3% |
16.2–18.5% |
16.0–18.8% |
15.7–19.1% |
15.2–19.6% |
Socialni demokrati |
6.0% |
13.2% |
12.3–14.2% |
12.0–14.5% |
11.8–14.8% |
11.3–15.3% |
Lista Marjana Šarca |
0.0% |
12.3% |
11.4–13.3% |
11.1–13.5% |
10.9–13.8% |
10.5–14.3% |
Levica |
6.0% |
9.1% |
8.3–10.0% |
8.1–10.2% |
7.9–10.4% |
7.5–10.9% |
Stranka modernega centra |
34.5% |
8.1% |
7.4–9.0% |
7.2–9.2% |
7.0–9.4% |
6.7–9.9% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
5.6% |
7.1% |
6.4–7.9% |
6.2–8.2% |
6.1–8.4% |
5.7–8.8% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
10.2% |
4.8% |
4.3–5.5% |
4.1–5.7% |
4.0–5.9% |
3.7–6.2% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
4.4% |
4.4% |
3.8–5.0% |
3.7–5.2% |
3.6–5.4% |
3.3–5.7% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka |
2.2% |
3.8% |
3.3–4.4% |
3.1–4.6% |
3.0–4.7% |
2.8–5.0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka |
4.0% |
2.9% |
2.4–3.4% |
2.3–3.6% |
2.2–3.7% |
2.0–4.0% |
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
13% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
51% |
86% |
Median |
17 |
17% |
35% |
|
18 |
15% |
18% |
|
19 |
2% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
26% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
37% |
74% |
Median |
13 |
27% |
37% |
|
14 |
8% |
10% |
|
15 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
38% |
96% |
|
12 |
29% |
59% |
Median |
13 |
29% |
30% |
|
14 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
57% |
98% |
Median |
9 |
37% |
41% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
22% |
96% |
|
8 |
70% |
74% |
Median |
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
62% |
98% |
Median |
7 |
30% |
36% |
|
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
91% |
|
2 |
0% |
91% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
4 |
63% |
90% |
Median |
5 |
26% |
27% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
91% |
|
2 |
0% |
91% |
|
3 |
22% |
91% |
|
4 |
61% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
8% |
8% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
59% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
41% |
|
2 |
0% |
41% |
|
3 |
5% |
41% |
|
4 |
36% |
36% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.4% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas za otroke in družine–Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
61 |
46 |
52% |
43–49 |
43–49 |
43–49 |
40–49 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
57 |
42 |
5% |
40–45 |
39–45 |
39–46 |
39–47 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
56 |
39 |
0% |
37–42 |
37–42 |
37–42 |
33–43 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
47 |
39 |
0% |
36–40 |
36–41 |
36–42 |
35–42 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
52 |
36 |
0% |
33–38 |
33–38 |
32–39 |
32–41 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
21 |
34 |
0% |
32–37 |
31–38 |
31–38 |
31–39 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
31 |
32 |
0% |
30–34 |
29–35 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra |
42 |
32 |
0% |
30–33 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
28–35 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
11 |
31 |
0% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
28–34 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca |
21 |
29 |
0% |
27–30 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
16 |
28 |
0% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca |
6 |
25 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
52 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–29 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
43 |
29% |
98.9% |
|
44 |
6% |
70% |
|
45 |
12% |
64% |
|
46 |
15% |
52% |
Median, Majority |
47 |
14% |
37% |
|
48 |
5% |
23% |
|
49 |
18% |
18% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
40 |
27% |
91% |
|
41 |
9% |
64% |
|
42 |
11% |
55% |
Median |
43 |
16% |
44% |
|
44 |
5% |
29% |
|
45 |
19% |
24% |
|
46 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
47 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
37 |
32% |
98% |
|
38 |
7% |
66% |
|
39 |
13% |
58% |
|
40 |
9% |
46% |
Median |
41 |
17% |
36% |
|
42 |
18% |
19% |
|
43 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
27% |
98.6% |
|
37 |
10% |
71% |
|
38 |
9% |
61% |
Median |
39 |
23% |
52% |
|
40 |
21% |
29% |
|
41 |
4% |
7% |
|
42 |
4% |
4% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
8% |
97% |
|
34 |
27% |
90% |
|
35 |
10% |
62% |
|
36 |
11% |
53% |
Median |
37 |
17% |
42% |
|
38 |
21% |
24% |
|
39 |
3% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
25% |
93% |
|
33 |
5% |
68% |
|
34 |
16% |
64% |
Median |
35 |
14% |
48% |
|
36 |
9% |
34% |
|
37 |
19% |
25% |
|
38 |
4% |
5% |
|
39 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
4% |
93% |
|
31 |
35% |
89% |
Last Result |
32 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
33 |
20% |
48% |
|
34 |
21% |
28% |
|
35 |
6% |
7% |
|
36 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
30 |
29% |
98% |
|
31 |
11% |
69% |
|
32 |
11% |
58% |
Median |
33 |
38% |
47% |
|
34 |
6% |
8% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
24% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
4% |
75% |
|
30 |
18% |
71% |
Median |
31 |
18% |
54% |
|
32 |
28% |
36% |
|
33 |
2% |
7% |
|
34 |
5% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
32% |
94% |
|
28 |
7% |
62% |
Median |
29 |
43% |
55% |
|
30 |
7% |
12% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
9% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
23% |
90% |
|
27 |
6% |
67% |
|
28 |
15% |
61% |
Median |
29 |
18% |
46% |
|
30 |
24% |
28% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
25% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
6% |
74% |
|
24 |
18% |
69% |
Median |
25 |
38% |
50% |
|
26 |
9% |
12% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
7% |
98% |
|
22 |
5% |
91% |
|
23 |
28% |
87% |
|
24 |
16% |
58% |
Median |
25 |
35% |
42% |
|
26 |
4% |
7% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Valicon
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28–31 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1964
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%