Opinion Poll by Winston for Artículo14, 21–23 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 29.4% | 27.8–31.2% | 27.3–31.6% | 26.9–32.1% | 26.1–32.9% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.1% | 25.5–28.8% | 25.0–29.3% | 24.6–29.7% | 23.9–30.5% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.2% | 17.8–20.7% | 17.4–21.1% | 17.0–21.5% | 16.4–22.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 20% | 96% | |
| 22 | 40% | 76% | Median |
| 23 | 28% | 37% | |
| 24 | 8% | 9% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 17% | 97% | |
| 20 | 38% | 81% | Median |
| 21 | 31% | 43% | |
| 22 | 10% | 12% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 15 | 37% | 49% | |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 20% | 96% | |
| 22 | 40% | 76% | Median |
| 23 | 28% | 37% | |
| 24 | 8% | 9% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 17% | 97% | |
| 20 | 38% | 81% | Median |
| 21 | 31% | 43% | |
| 22 | 10% | 12% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 15 | 37% | 49% | |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winston
- Commissioner(s): Artículo14
- Fieldwork period: 21–23 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.18%