Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 2–10 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 22.9% | 21.2–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 22.6% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.5–24.9% | 20.1–25.3% | 19.3–26.2% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 16.2% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.3% | 14.1–18.7% | 13.4–19.4% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 15.5% | 14.1–17.1% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.4–17.9% | 12.8–18.7% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 21 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–26 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–18 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 15 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 96% | |
| 19 | 15% | 91% | |
| 20 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 21 | 32% | 45% | |
| 22 | 10% | 13% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 14% | 91% | |
| 20 | 18% | 77% | Last Result |
| 21 | 50% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 5% | 9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 13 | 36% | 92% | |
| 14 | 46% | 56% | Median |
| 15 | 5% | 10% | |
| 16 | 3% | 5% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 10% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 6% | 89% | |
| 12 | 10% | 83% | |
| 13 | 10% | 74% | |
| 14 | 12% | 64% | |
| 15 | 47% | 52% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 22% | 91% | |
| 6 | 52% | 69% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 17% | |
| 8 | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 35% | |
| 2 | 3% | 28% | |
| 3 | 10% | 26% | |
| 4 | 14% | 16% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 54 | 100% | 52–57 | 51–57 | 50–58 | 50–60 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 45 | 48 | 100% | 45–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 40 | 93% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 41 | 96% | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 40 | 92% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 40 | 86% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 34 | 3% | 32–36 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 34 | 2% | 32–36 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 34 | 0.9% | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 28–38 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 22 | 28 | 0% | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–31 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 97% | |
| 52 | 6% | 93% | |
| 53 | 13% | 87% | |
| 54 | 31% | 74% | |
| 55 | 19% | 43% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 14% | 24% | |
| 57 | 6% | 10% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 7% | 92% | Last Result |
| 46 | 11% | 84% | |
| 47 | 14% | 74% | |
| 48 | 26% | 60% | |
| 49 | 16% | 34% | Median |
| 50 | 16% | 18% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98% | |
| 38 | 10% | 93% | Majority |
| 39 | 24% | 83% | |
| 40 | 26% | 59% | |
| 41 | 15% | 33% | Median |
| 42 | 8% | 18% | Last Result |
| 43 | 5% | 10% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 7% | 96% | Majority |
| 39 | 10% | 89% | |
| 40 | 19% | 79% | |
| 41 | 33% | 60% | Median |
| 42 | 17% | 28% | |
| 43 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 5% | 97% | |
| 38 | 9% | 92% | Majority |
| 39 | 31% | 83% | |
| 40 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 41 | 20% | 33% | |
| 42 | 6% | 13% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 7% | 93% | |
| 38 | 9% | 86% | Majority |
| 39 | 10% | 77% | |
| 40 | 26% | 67% | |
| 41 | 21% | 40% | Median |
| 42 | 17% | 20% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 32 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 33 | 24% | 89% | |
| 34 | 25% | 65% | |
| 35 | 28% | 39% | Median |
| 36 | 5% | 12% | |
| 37 | 3% | 7% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 12% | 95% | |
| 33 | 24% | 83% | |
| 34 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 35 | 26% | 38% | Last Result |
| 36 | 7% | 12% | |
| 37 | 3% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 8% | 94% | |
| 32 | 10% | 86% | |
| 33 | 12% | 76% | Last Result |
| 34 | 16% | 64% | |
| 35 | 23% | 47% | Median |
| 36 | 19% | 24% | |
| 37 | 4% | 5% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 8% | 97% | |
| 25 | 22% | 89% | |
| 26 | 20% | 67% | |
| 27 | 28% | 47% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 19% | |
| 29 | 6% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 6% | 95% | |
| 25 | 8% | 90% | |
| 26 | 9% | 82% | |
| 27 | 16% | 73% | |
| 28 | 28% | 57% | |
| 29 | 22% | 29% | Median |
| 30 | 5% | 7% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 7% | 96% | |
| 25 | 21% | 88% | |
| 26 | 27% | 67% | Median |
| 27 | 27% | 41% | |
| 28 | 6% | 13% | |
| 29 | 4% | 7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 2–10 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 992
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%