Parti Socialiste
Voting Intentions
Last result: 26.2% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 23.4% | 20.3–26.6% | 19.7–27.2% | 19.3–27.7% | 18.4–28.7% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
25.4% | 23.7–27.2% | 23.2–27.7% | 22.8–28.2% | 22.0–29.1% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.1–24.8% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
24.3% | 22.6–26.1% | 22.1–26.6% | 21.7–27.1% | 21.0–27.9% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
27.3% | 24.7–30.2% | 23.9–31.0% | 23.3–31.7% | 22.1–33.1% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.7–24.0% | 19.3–24.5% | 18.6–25.3% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.1% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.2% |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
25.7% | 23.3–28.3% | 22.6–29.1% | 22.1–29.7% | 21.0–31.0% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.7% | 22.0–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.4% | 20.3–27.3% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.4% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.3–24.6% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–25.9% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24.9% | 23.1–26.7% | 22.6–27.3% | 22.2–27.7% | 21.4–28.6% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21.4% | 19.7–23.2% | 19.3–23.7% | 18.9–24.2% | 18.1–25.0% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.8% | 21.1–24.6% | 20.6–25.1% | 20.2–25.5% | 19.4–26.4% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.1% | 21.5–24.9% | 21.0–25.4% | 20.6–25.8% | 19.8–26.7% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21.1% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.0–23.3% | 18.7–23.7% | 17.9–24.6% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
26.4% | 23.3–30.0% | 22.4–31.0% | 21.6–31.9% | 20.1–33.7% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.7% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.4–27.4% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.5% | 23.7–27.3% | 23.2–27.8% | 22.8–28.3% | 22.0–29.2% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.8% | 22.1–25.6% | 21.6–26.1% | 21.2–26.6% | 20.5–27.5% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.9% | 21.2–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Parti Socialiste.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 9% | 96% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 15% | 87% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 14% | 72% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 23.5–24.5% | 11% | 48% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 14% | 37% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 13% | 23% | Last Result |
| 26.5–27.5% | 7% | 10% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 23 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 21 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–25 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
22 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 19–25 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
23 | 21–26 | 20–28 | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
22 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 17–28 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 17–24 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
23 | 20–28 | 19–29 | 18–29 | 17–31 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 17–24 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Parti Socialiste.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 6% | 91% | |
| 19 | 24% | 84% | |
| 20 | 9% | 60% | |
| 21 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 33% | |
| 23 | 12% | 13% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |